Five years after the COVID-19 pandemic: It’s clear the world got it wrong, and Mexico got it even worse, experts say

Puerto Vallarta, Mexico – Five years after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, policy experts agree: the world was unprepared, and Mexico’s response stands out as particularly problematic. A president who refused to wear a face mask and was diagnosed three times with COVID during his presidential term, and a Health Secretary who did not believe COVID testing was necessary, killed thousands of Mexicans. What’s more concerning, say members of an Independent Commission of Inquiry into the COVID-19 Pandemic in Mexico, is that the country remains just as vulnerable to another global health crisis.

A new report titled “Learning to Avoid Repeating” points to three major factors behind Mexico’s pandemic failures: an overcentralized and personalized decision-making process, persistent underestimation of the virus’s severity, and the government’s austerity policy.

“The public policies put in place to contain the pandemic were not based on evidence,” says Mariana Campos, a member of the commission.

Governance Failures and High Mortality

Mexico’s already-precarious healthcare system—plagued by chronic underinvestment and high rates of comorbidities—collided with flawed governance choices at the pandemic’s peak. The combination led to more than 800,000 excess deaths, one of the highest tolls worldwide. Campos underscores that four in ten of these excess deaths stem from poor government management and decision-making:

1. Centralizing Decisions: A handful of officials absorbed control, sidelining established advisory bodies.
2. Underestimating Severity: Early narratives insisted COVID-19 would be a seasonal illness, discouraging widespread testing and mask use.
3. Austerity Measures: Despite the unfolding crisis, the government did not adequately increase healthcare spending, instead delaying disbursement of funds until late in the fiscal year.

“Political interests were put first,” consultant Xavier Tello says, criticizing the lack of a cohesive national plan and the marginalization of the General Health Council (CSG).

He points to Operation Roadrunner—where so-called “servants of the nation,” military personnel, and few medical professionals led vaccination efforts—as a strategy that failed to capitalize on a more expansive and transparent approach.

Major Turning Points

• Ignoring Expert Bodies: The Independent Commission’s report reveals how advisory groups such as the CSG and the National Academies of Medicine and Surgery were overshadowed by informal structures with little scientific input.
• Mexico City’s Missed Opportunity: In December 2020, Mexico City authorities delayed implementing tighter restrictions despite rising cases. The capital, home to only 7.3% of the national population, accounted for 24% of excess deaths during the second wave’s peak.
• Downplaying the Virus: Early on, government officials minimized the threat. Undersecretary of Prevention and Health Promotion Hugo López-Gattel insisted on using a sentinel system for seasonal flu, avoiding large-scale testing.

“They insisted it was just another seasonal virus,” Tello says, “and refused to spend budget funds on tests.”

Further eroding public trust was the federal government’s reluctance to enforce or even model mask-wearing.

Weak Spending and Transparency

According to Campos, the health sector saw persistent underspending in 2020. Budget injections only appeared in December, and large allocations were transferred to the Fonsabi trust, with little transparency regarding how those funds were actually spent.

“It appears a significant portion went unspent for most of the year or was funneled back to the treasury,” Campos notes.

The commission also highlights the reduced spending on health infrastructure and high-cost diseases, suggesting that the fund lost its intended purpose and became a way to simulate adequate health expenditure.

Vaccine Rollout Delays

Mexico’s vaccine program, characterized by inconsistent supply and delayed procurement decisions, was another stumbling block. Tello notes that early resistance to purchasing certain international vaccines—largely for political or ideological reasons—limited coverage.

Additionally, the government placed heavy emphasis on comorbidities and personal responsibility, often downplaying the lack of adequate intensive care facilities—especially in the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS)—and dismissing the known benefits of rigorous testing programs.

Accountability Urged

Despite the high death toll and slow economic recovery—Mexico’s GDP fell 8.7% in 2020 and took 31 months to rebound—official efforts to investigate mismanagement have been limited.

“In Mexico, the accountability system doesn’t work,” Campos observes, noting how other nations have formed commissions to document errors and improve preparedness for future health emergencies.

Preparing for the Next Global Health Crisis

As the pandemic recedes, health experts emphasize the urgency of adopting a cohesive strategy for future crises. A new UNAM-led panel underlines the need for:

1. Creation of an Epidemic Crisis Advisory Group
2. Evidence-Based Early Lockdowns
3. A Strengthened General Health Council (CSG)
4. Better Federal-State-Municipal Coordination
5. A Clear National Preparedness, Response, and Recovery Plan (PNPRR)
6. Robust Epidemiological Surveillance Systems
7. Public-Private Partnerships in Healthcare

“With the risk of another pandemic looming—especially in the context of climate change—Mexico must learn from the past,” says Dr. José Moya Medina of the Pan American Health Organization, stressing the importance of a solid governance structure and continuous strategic planning.

Pandemic By the Numbers

• Excess Deaths: 808,619 from 2020 to May 9, 2023
• Ranking in Excess Deaths: Fourth globally (WHO), following Peru, Bolivia, and Ecuador
• Healthcare Personnel Loss: 4,843—highest in the Americas
• Economic Fallout:
  • 1 million businesses closed permanently
  • 10.6 million Mexicans lost their jobs
  • 6.2 million fell out of the middle class
  • GDP dropped by 8.7% in 2020, taking 31 months to recover

As Mexico confronts this stark record, many see an urgent need for genuine oversight and robust planning. Without a clear plan and decisive steps to correct systemic weaknesses, experts fear the nation’s next encounter with a global health emergency could be every bit as devastating.