Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to support the development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form on Wednesday or Thursday while it moves slowly west-northwestward.
The chances of formation over the next 48 hours is 30%, however, the chances increase to 90% over the next 5-days.
The 2018 Pacific Hurricane Season officially begins on May 15 in the East Pacific Ocean, and on June 1 in the Central Pacific; they will both end on November 30. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Pacific basin. However, the formation of tropical cyclones is possible at any time of the year.
The odds are increasingly in favor for the development of a neutral state of El Niño or a weak El Niño by the heart of the hurricane season. In other words, near average or slightly warmer than average water temperatures in the eastern Pacific are anticipated.
You can keep up with the 2018 hurricane season and its impact on Puerto Vallarta’s weather here.