Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, September 11, 2026 – The Mexican peso remained close to 17 per dollar Friday morning after fresh U.S. inflation data produced only a limited initial move in the exchange rate.
A live wholesale-market quote placed USD/MXN at 16.9877 at 6:33 a.m. Mexico City time. That was about 0.05% above the feed’s previous close of 16.9800, meaning the peso was slightly weaker. The pair had traded between 16.9509 and 17.0034 during the session.
The U.S. consumer inflation report showed headline prices rising 0.4% in August and 3.4% from a year earlier. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, increased 0.3% during the month, above the 0.2% consensus estimate, while the annual core rate eased from 2.5% to 2.4%.
Mexico’s industrial output provides support
Domestic economic data gave the peso some support before the U.S. inflation release.
INEGI’s July industrial report showed production rising 0.5% from June after seasonal adjustments. Output was 2.4% higher than a year earlier on the adjusted measure and 2.7% higher using original figures.
Construction increased 0.9% during the month, and manufacturing rose 0.7%. Mining output fell 1.8%.
The figures point to stronger industrial activity entering the third quarter, although one monthly report does not establish a sustained acceleration.
Mexico’s annual headline inflation also increased to 3.26% in August from 3.12% in July. Core inflation eased to 3.88%, according to data released Wednesday.
Banco de México has kept its benchmark rate at 6.50%, preserving a sizable interest-rate advantage over the United States. The central bank’s next policy decision is scheduled for September 24.
U.S. inflation keeps the Federal Reserve decision open
Gasoline prices rose 3.9% in August and accounted for more than one-third of the monthly increase in the U.S. consumer index. Energy prices advanced 2.1%, while shelter costs rose 0.3%.
The stronger monthly core reading kept a possible Federal Reserve rate increase under active consideration ahead of its September 15–16 meeting. Before Friday’s report, futures markets placed the probability of a quarter-point increase at roughly 70%.
The dollar had entered Friday near its highest level of the week. The dollar index was around 99.15 after gaining 0.4% Thursday, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield approached 5%.
Thursday’s U.S. producer-price report showed wholesale prices increasing 0.4% in August and 5.4% over 12 months. Together, the producer and consumer reports give Fed officials evidence of continued monthly price pressure, even as annual core consumer inflation declined.
Oil and trade headlines complicate the picture
Brent crude pulled back to about $104 per barrel Friday after approaching $110, but remained on course for a weekly gain of more than 7%. Supply concerns have grown amid attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure and shipping routes.
Higher oil prices can help Mexico as a crude exporter. In the current setting, however, the increase also raises global inflation concerns, pushes government borrowing costs higher and encourages demand for the dollar during periods of market stress. The effect on the peso is therefore mixed.
Mexico’s currency also remains sensitive to trade negotiations with Washington. Officials in both countries are seeking progress on an interim bilateral agreement before the U.S. midterm elections, with automobile and steel tariffs among the central issues, according to people familiar with the talks. No agreement has been announced.
Congress is meanwhile beginning its review of Mexico’s proposed 2027 budget. The draft projects economic growth of 1.5% to 2.5%, a broader public-sector deficit equal to 3.9% of gross domestic product and public debt reaching 55% of GDP. Those are government projections, and the package has not received congressional approval.
From the market screen to a Puerto Vallarta budget
At 16.9877 pesos per dollar, US$1,000 converted at the wholesale market rate would equal approximately 16,988 pesos before fees. MXN 1,699 would cover about US$100 at the same reference rate.
The entire morning trading range represented a difference of about 53 pesos on a US$1,000 conversion. Bank transfers, card transactions, ATMs and currency-exchange counters normally include their own spreads or fees, so customers will not receive the wholesale quote shown on market screens.
Thursday’s Banco de México records listed the FIX rate at 16.9722 and the official closing-of-day rate at 16.9996. Friday’s FIX will be published after noon.
People earning dollars and paying regular expenses in pesos are receiving close to 17 pesos per dollar before transaction costs. For households with peso income and dollar obligations, the same rate means a US$1,000 payment costs close to 17,000 pesos. Conditions can change during the session as markets continue to assess the U.S. inflation report, interest-rate expectations, oil prices, and trade developments.
