Mexican Peso – U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate Today: The Mexican peso regained ground on Tuesday, closing at 18.7378 per US dollar. According to Bank of Mexico data, this marked a gain of 16.91 cents, or 0.89 percent, compared to Monday’s 18.9069 close. Traders pointed to growing bets that the US Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark interest rate at its mid-September meeting as the main driver behind the peso’s rise.
Mexican peso advances against dollar
Currency markets saw the dollar trade between a high of 18.9481 and a low of 18.7174 on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Intercontinental Exchange’s Dollar Index (DXY) held steady at 98.75 points. The Mexican peso advances against dollar benchmarks as investors weigh shifting policy expectations south of the border and in the US.
San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said on Monday that “with growing evidence of a weakening US labor market and no signs of tariff-related inflation, the time to cut rates is near.” Her comments followed softer nonfarm payrolls data released last Friday. The market swiftly priced in a rate reduction, with CME Group’s FedWatch tool placing the probability of a September cut at 90 percent.
Back home, all eyes turn to Banxico’s Governing Board, which meets on Thursday. Analysts forecast a 25-basis-point adjustment. A reduction by the central bank could further bolster the peso, should the Fed move first.
On the domestic investment front, data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography showed a mixed picture for May. Business investment climbed 0.9 percent from April, yet gross fixed investment dipped 7.1 percent over the same period. Financial group Banorte noted that “we recognize the environment will remain complex in the second half of the year. However, we anticipate modest growth in domestic demand. We expect resilience in consumption and mixed performance in investment.”
Trade relations also drew attention on Tuesday. President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo met with Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand and Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne in Mexico City. The leaders discussed strategies to counter recent US tariffs, which US President Donald Trump raised from 25 percent to 35 percent on Canadian goods while extending a 90-day grace period for Mexico to negotiate a broader trade agreement. “We are strengthening the relationship between our countries,” Sheinbaum said in a message on X. Later, Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard told reporters he would continue talks with Champagne to address the tariff dispute.
Market participants noted that the peso’s rebound reflects both external and local factors. The prospect of looser US monetary policy has undercut dollar strength, while this week’s Mexican data gave investors fresh insight into the economy’s resilience. With Banxico’s decision imminent, traders remain alert for any signal that could tip the balance in currency valuations.
Looking ahead, the peso’s path will hinge on US labor market reports, Fed communications, and Banxico’s policy moves. Should the Fed act first, the peso could test levels below 18.70. Conversely, if Banxico surprises the market, Mexican assets may come under renewed selling pressure. For now, the Mexican peso advances against dollar narratives underscore the interplay of global monetary shifts and Mexico’s domestic outlook.
