Mexico’s economic growth is outperforming earlier pessimistic projections, prompting the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to revise its 2025 forecast upward. President Claudia Sheinbaum celebrated fresh data showing the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.7% in Q2 2025, beating analysts’ expectations of 0.4%. This better-than-expected expansion, alongside sustained wage increases and social programs, has led to notable reductions in poverty and inequality, according to Sheinbaum.
In her July 30 press conference, Sheinbaum underscored that Mexico’s economic fundamentals remain “fuerte, sólida” (strong, solid). She pointed out that critics predicting a downturn have been proven wrong, as Mexico’s policies – including higher minimum wages and “Plan México” development strategies – are yielding results. “Dijimos que se estaban equivocando,” Sheinbaum quipped, meaning “We said they were mistaken,” referring to earlier IMF warnings.
IMF Raises Growth Outlook
The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook update validates this optimism. It revised Mexico’s 2025 GDP forecast from a -0.3% contraction to +0.2% growth, a swing of half a percentage point into positive territory. The Fund also maintained its 2026 growth projection at 1.4%. Sheinbaum hailed the IMF’s adjustment as proof that Mexico “está rindiendo efecto” (is delivering results). She emphasized that even with external uncertainties – notably U.S. trade tensions and tariff threats – Mexico’s economy “will continue growing in the coming years”. Indeed, officials project the growth trend to persist “de menos a más” (from less to more) through 2026.
The president acknowledged that recent U.S. tariff brinkmanship has introduced some uncertainty in the market. However, she stressed that Mexico engaged in intensive dialogue to protect its economy, and expressed confidence that cooperation will prevail. “Hay optimismo,” Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard noted separately, affirming that Mexico has done its part and any tariff decision now lies with Washington.
Mexico Economic Growth
Beyond GDP figures, job creation and investment remain robust. Nearshoring trends have attracted billions of dollars in private investment to Mexico’s northern states, bolstering manufacturing and logistics sectors. Baja California, for example, has drawn over $4.2 billion USD of announced investments this year – the highest in the nation – with an expected 18,750 new jobs. Nuevo León follows with $2.49 billion and ~2,650 jobs, and Sonora with $2.27 billion and 1,000 jobs. These inflows, focused in manufacturing, trade, and services, highlight Mexico’s growing role as a supply-chain hub.
Sheinbaum highlighted that Mexico’s social policies are contributing to this growth. Rising minimum wages and increased “programas de Bienestar” (social welfare programs) have boosted consumer spending and living standards. She noted that multiple indicators – not just GDP – show an economy on stronger footing, from declining poverty rates to narrowing income gaps.
Overall, the mood in Mexico is one of cautious optimism. With a more favorable IMF outlook and tangible gains in employment and investment, the country appears to be navigating global headwinds effectively. “A México le irá bien,” Sheinbaum asserted confidently, vowing that economic growth will continue benefiting Mexican families in the years ahead.
