Mexico posted its highest-ever export total to the United States in the first six months of 2025, reaching $264.38 billion USD, according to U.S. Commerce Department figures released this week.
The number represents a 6 percent increase compared to the same period in 2024 and marks the strongest performance since recordkeeping began under the NAFTA framework in 1993. The surge solidifies Mexico’s position as the United States’ top trading partner, ahead of Canada and China.
In June alone, Mexico accounted for more than 16 percent of all U.S. international trade, underscoring the strength of the bilateral commercial relationship despite ongoing tariff policies and political tensions.
Manufactured goods and agriculture lead the way
Analysts credit the robust performance to steady demand for Mexican-made goods, including auto parts, electronics, textiles, and agricultural products like avocados, berries, and beer.
Mexico’s manufacturing sector has proven resilient, benefiting from its proximity to U.S. supply chains and continued interest in nearshoring — the practice of relocating production from Asia to North America to reduce risk and logistics costs.
“Mexico has become a key node in U.S. industrial strategy,” said a trade economist from the University of Texas. “It’s not just about cheap labor anymore. It’s about reliability, speed, and shared infrastructure.”
Trade tensions didn’t slow momentum
The export boom comes despite persistent U.S. tariffs on selected Mexican goods — many of them holdovers from the Trump administration’s trade policies — and periodic friction over labor standards and environmental enforcement under the USMCA (formerly NAFTA).
Still, Mexican exporters managed to adapt, diversify, and grow.
According to customs data, auto parts and electronics remain the top export categories, but agriculture and processed foods saw some of the biggest year-over-year growth.
“We’re seeing Mexico diversify both its export base and the companies participating in trade,” said an analyst at Banco BASE. “It’s not just the big factories anymore — it’s SMEs and regional producers stepping into the market.”
Nearshoring continues to reshape trade map
The latest numbers reflect how nearshoring continues to reshape the North American trade landscape, especially as U.S. companies look to reduce their dependency on China and Southeast Asia.
Industrial parks in northern Mexico, especially in Nuevo León, Chihuahua, and Baja California, are at full capacity, with many firms operating on just-in-time export models designed specifically for U.S. buyers.
Mexico’s free trade agreements, educated workforce, and logistical infrastructure make it a uniquely attractive hub for U.S. importers.
“This is more than a rebound. It’s a structural shift,” said an executive with a Monterrey-based manufacturing group. “And we’re only in the early stages.”
Political implications on both sides of the border
The trade data comes at a politically sensitive time. In the U.S., concerns over border security and labor outsourcing are fueling anti-trade rhetoric ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Meanwhile, in Mexico, the Sheinbaum administration has been quick to highlight the export figures as proof of economic resilience and international relevance.
“Mexico is not just a neighbor — we’re a partner,” said a statement from the Secretariat of Economy. “This is what integration looks like when it works.”
However, some economists warn that overreliance on the U.S. market could leave Mexico vulnerable to future policy shifts in Washington. They argue that diversification—particularly within Latin America and Asia—should remain a priority.
What’s next?
With six months left in the year, trade watchers expect Mexico’s exports to the U.S. to exceed $500 billion for the first time ever, barring major economic disruptions.
But the road ahead could include currency fluctuations, labor disputes, or logistical bottlenecks, especially at key border crossings like Laredo and Tijuana.
For now, though, Mexico’s export engine is running at full speed, and the numbers are rewriting the narrative on North American trade in 2025.
