Quintana Roo, Mexico – The Caribbean Business Coordinating Council (CCE) delivered a stark assessment of the region’s economic health in the first half of 2025, calling the performance an unfavorable economic outlook. The council’s president, Javier Carlos Olvera Silveira, acknowledged that a mix of currency volatility, constrained air connectivity, and recurrent sargassum arrivals dragged down momentum when the region most needed stability.
Olvera Silveira said the strength of the U.S. dollar against the peso eroded local purchasing power and made operational costs heavier for businesses that rely on imported inputs or that price services in a mix of currencies. The exchange rate swings also discouraged some domestic consumption and complicated budgeting for small and medium enterprises trying to plan beyond immediate cash flow needs. That instability rippled into sectors dependent on predictable demand, like hospitality and local retail.
A second structural drag was the shortage of available airplane seats into key gateways. Airlines have not increased capacity adequately to match growing international interest, and some routes remain underserved. That limited arrival numbers, especially among tourists who plan trips on shorter windows or rely on direct connections. With fewer flights and higher fares from constrained supply, the tourism sector felt the strain during critical travel weeks, dampening hotel occupancy and related spending across the value chain.
The third major factor was the ongoing issue of sargassum washing ashore. Beaches remain central to Quintana Roo’s appeal, and the recurring macroalgae have continued to shape perception and operational costs. Cleaning efforts soak up local resources, and potential visitors sometimes delay or cancel trips when large blooms are reported. The CCE flagged that the cost of mitigation, combined with the visual and experiential impact of sargassum along popular shorelines, undercut recovery efforts even when demand existed.
Together, these dynamics resulted in what the CCE describes as a “difficult” first half. Officials warned that without coordinated responses, the region risks losing the incremental gains that had been building in previous years. The combination of currency pressure, transport constraints, and environmental nuisances has kept investment appetite cautious, and some planned expansions or new initiatives were delayed or scaled back.
Local business owners report watching tourist flows closely, noting that the swings in arrival volumes are no longer solely seasonal but increasingly tied to the mix of variables outlined by the CCE. Hoteliers said that even on weekends with favorable weather, the absence of sufficient seat capacity from source markets limited their ability to capitalize. Restaurateurs and service providers echoed concerns, adding that the uncertainty around both the supply of visitors and their spending power has made inventory and staffing decisions more fraught.
The unfavorable economic outlook also has implications for municipal revenue streams, which depend heavily on tourism-related taxes and fees. Lower occupancy and reduced visitor spending translate into tighter public budgets, affecting infrastructure maintenance and services that themselves support the region’s attractiveness. Some local officials have begun exploring targeted promotional strategies, but the CCE stressed that tactical marketing alone cannot offset the deeper structural issues without parallel fixes.
Addressing the currency volatility would require broader macroeconomic coordination, including measures to stabilize peso value and give small businesses better hedging tools. Improving air connectivity, the CCE suggested, demands collaboration between public authorities, tourism stakeholders, and carriers to incentivize route expansion or frequency increases, especially from key feeder markets in North America and Europe. On the environmental front, investments in early-warning systems for sargassum, combined with more efficient cleaning logistics, could reduce both cost and reputation damage.
Despite the cautious tone, the CCE did not dismiss potential recovery. The region still holds strong assets: natural beaches, established tourism infrastructure, and a rising profile among international travelers. What the council emphasized is that the current unfavorable economic outlook should serve as a trigger for proactive problem-solving, not resignation. Without quick adaptation, the soft patch could extend into the high season and make gains harder to reclaim.
Sources within the private sector say there is a window to act before decision-makers and investors begin to look elsewhere for more stable, predictable environments. The CCE is preparing follow-up dialogue with municipal and state governments to prioritize the most immediate frictions. That includes a request for fast-tracking policies that support airline partnerships, smoothing permitting for tourism-related infrastructure projects, and allocating resources to more resilient beach management systems.
For now, businesses in Quintana Roo and the broader Caribbean region are bracing for a second half that will reveal whether the response to the unfavorable economic outlook report can arrest the slowdown or whether the issues will compound. The message from the CCE is clear: the early warning is already public; the effectiveness of the recovery will depend on how quickly and coherently stakeholders move to address the root causes.
