Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, July 14, 2026 – A tropical disturbance south-southwest of Mexico is expected to become a tropical depression or tropical storm later Tuesday or Tuesday night, but the latest outlook keeps its center well offshore and does not indicate a direct strike on Puerto Vallarta.
The National Hurricane Center identified the disturbance as EP96 and raised its development probability to 90 percent within 48 hours and nearly 100 percent within seven days. Satellite data showed thunderstorms becoming better organized around the tropical wave, with gusty winds already occurring near the system.
EP96 was moving west-northwest, a path expected to carry it roughly parallel to Mexico’s Pacific coast while gradually increasing its distance from land. Mexican reporting placed the disturbance about 525 kilometers southwest of Punta San Telmo, Michoacán, early Tuesday.
The system has not yet been named. Elida is next on the 2026 eastern Pacific naming list after Amanda, Boris, Cristina and Douglas. A depression could form first, with the Elida name assigned only if sustained winds reach tropical storm strength. The season summary through July 14 lists four named storms and no hurricanes so far this year.
No tropical storm watch or warning covered the Jalisco coast Tuesday morning, and no official cyclone track had been issued because the disturbance had not yet developed a defined circulation. That distinction matters when maps and headlines describe a system as being “off Jalisco.” The phrase refers to a broad stretch of Pacific waters and does not mean the center is approaching Puerto Vallarta or Banderas Bay.
Marine conditions are the more immediate concern. The NHC offshore waters forecast projected east to southeast winds of 20 to 25 knots and seas of 9 to 13 feet Tuesday across the zone covering Colima and Jalisco south of 20 degrees north and extending as far as 300 nautical miles offshore. Those figures describe open Pacific waters across a large area, not the expected wave height at Los Muertos Beach, Marina Vallarta, or inside the bay.
Mexico’s National Meteorological Service forecast placed western and southern Jalisco under a risk of 50 to 75 millimeters of rain Tuesday, with thunderstorms, possible hail, localized flooding, rising streams and landslide risk. It also projected waves of 2 to 3 meters along parts of the Jalisco, Colima and Michoacán coastline.
Puerto Vallarta’s Tuesday weather outlook already includes the potential for afternoon thunderstorms. Any stronger cell developing over the bay or nearby mountains could produce short periods of heavy rain, reduced visibility and temporary flooding at low points, even while EP96 remains hundreds of kilometers offshore.
The disturbance is the same broader Pacific threat Vallarta Daily began tracking last week, when development odds were lower and the main local question centered on moisture, surf and rain rather than landfall.
Forecast confidence should improve once a closed circulation forms and regular advisories begin. Until then, changes in organization and position will matter more than the possible name. Boat operators and anyone planning open-water activity south of the bay should check updated port guidance and sea conditions before departure.
A separate low-pressure area is also expected to form later this week, several hundred miles south of Mexico. The NHC gives that second system a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression by the end of the weekend as it also moves west-northwest well offshore.
