Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, Sept. 18, 2026 — A local meteorologist says Puerto Vallarta has entered its higher-risk late-season hurricane period as Pacific storm tracks shift closer to Mexico.
Víctor Manuel Cornejo López, a meteorologist on the scientific committee advising local Civil Protection, said the risk begins rising during the second half of September. He identified October as the period of greatest concern.
The warning concerns seasonal conditions, not an approaching cyclone. The National Hurricane Center reported no active tropical cyclones in the eastern Pacific early Friday.
How the risk period affects Puerto Vallarta
Municipal Civil Protection identifies wind, heavy rainfall and storm surge among the principal cyclone hazards. Its guidance warns residents against walking or driving through flooded streets, river crossings or other moving water.
The local danger is not limited to properties near the beach. Our earlier reporting on why Puerto Vallarta streets flood during heavy rain found that mountain runoff, low ground, drainage limits and river channels can overwhelm roads.
A cyclone does not need to make landfall inside Banderas Bay to bring those conditions. Rain bands, high surf and runoff can affect the city while a storm’s center remains offshore or crosses elsewhere along the Jalisco or Nayarit coast.
The 2026 storm numbers require context
Our review of the National Hurricane Center’s 2026 season summary found 14 named storms through early Friday. That was three more than the 1991-2020 normal for this point in the season.
However, the basin had produced four hurricanes, two fewer than normal, and two major hurricanes, one fewer than normal. Accumulated Cyclone Energy, which measures the strength and duration of storms, was 28% above normal.
Mexico’s 2026 seasonal outlook projected 18 to 21 Pacific tropical cyclones. The estimate included up to six Category 1 or 2 hurricanes and as many as five major hurricanes.
“The Pacific will be above average,” National Meteorological Service coordinator Fabián Vázquez Romaña said in Spanish during the April forecast presentation.
NOAA separately gave the eastern Pacific a 70% probability of an above-normal season. The agency cautioned that a seasonal outlook cannot predict landfall risk for Puerto Vallarta or any other specific location.
Why October remains a local concern
NOAA identifies July through September as the peak period for overall eastern Pacific cyclone activity. Cornejo López’s warning focuses on the location of late-season storm tracks.
He said most systems earlier this season moved farther into the open Pacific. From late September, he expects a greater chance of systems running parallel to Mexico’s western coast or approaching land.
Cornejo López attributed that change to the arrival of early frontal systems interacting with tropical moisture and warm ocean water. He said those conditions can alter steering patterns near the coast.
Puerto Vallarta’s recent storm history includes two significant October systems.
The official report on Hurricane Lidia records a Category 4 landfall near Las Peñitas, Jalisco, on Oct. 10, 2023. The storm crossed the coast south of Puerto Vallarta.
The report on Hurricane Kenna records a Category 4 landfall near San Blas on Oct. 25, 2002. The report says storm surge also affected Puerto Vallarta, although no measurement was available.
Municipal preparation guidance
Puerto Vallarta’s current cyclone-preparation guidance identifies Casa de Día, CECyTEJ El Mangal and Salón Ejidal Ixtapa as principal temporary shelters. Residents must verify which locations have been activated during an emergency.
Civil Protection also advises households to establish evacuation routes and family meeting points. Emergency bags should contain water, food, medicine, flashlights, batteries, hygiene supplies, and cash.
Residents are advised to protect identification and property records in sealed bags, clear drains and gutters, trim unsafe branches and secure loose objects on balconies or patios.
