PUERTO VALLARTA, Jalisco, Sept. 22, 2026 — Hurricane Polo reached Category 4 early Tuesday, while official forecasts called for heavy rain and high surf along Jalisco’s coast.
The midnight Central time advisory placed Polo 330 miles (530 kilometers) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Colima. Maximum sustained winds had reached 130 mph (215 kph).
Forecasters expected a sharp turn toward the northwest and west-northwest Tuesday night into Wednesday, with the core remaining offshore. Puerto Vallarta was outside the Tropical Storm Watch at midnight.
The watch extended from Tecpan de Galeana, Guerrero, to Manzanillo, Colima.
Rain and surf are Puerto Vallarta’s main risks
As of midnight, official advisories pointed to rain and sea conditions as Puerto Vallarta’s most immediate hazards, rather than Polo’s core winds.
The National Hurricane Center forecast 3 to 6 inches of rain across coastal portions of Jalisco, Colima and Oaxaca through Thursday.
Mexico’s national forecast was more specific for Tuesday. It called for 2 to 3 inches of rain across southern, southwestern and coastal Jalisco.
The forecast also projected coastal gusts of 25 to 37 mph and waves of 5 to 8 feet along Jalisco’s shore.
The meteorological service warned that heavy rain could raise river and stream levels. It also listed landslides, flooding, standing water, and reduced visibility among the possible effects.
The coastal forecast applies to Puerto Vallarta’s shoreline, from Boca de Tomatlán and Conchas Chinas through Playa Los Muertos, the Hotel Zone and Marina Vallarta. It is a regional outlook, not a prediction that every beach or neighborhood will receive the highest totals.
The Mexican cyclone bulletin advised residents and mariners in affected states to use extra caution and follow Civil Protection instructions.
Locally, beach flags and notices from Puerto Vallarta Civil Protection or the harbor master should take priority over broad state forecasts.
PVDN reported Monday that then-Tropical Storm Polo posed rain and surf risks to Puerto Vallarta. The overnight strengthening changed Polo’s category, but it had not moved the city into the watch area by midnight.
Polo jumped three categories in six hours
Our review of consecutive advisories found that Polo’s sustained winds rose from 90 mph at 6 p.m. Monday to 130 mph at midnight.
The 6 p.m. advisory listed Polo as a Category 1 hurricane with a minimum pressure of 971 millibars. Six hours later, it was Category 4, and its pressure had fallen to 955 millibars.
The midnight advisory said Polo could become a “potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane” Tuesday or Wednesday.
Despite its strength, Polo’s hurricane-force winds extended up to 30 miles from the eye. Tropical-storm-force winds reached up to 80 miles per hour, according to the advisory.
Forecast keeps Polo’s center offshore
The official track brings Polo’s core near southwestern Mexico during the next several days but keeps its center over water.
The National Hurricane Center projected a peak near 160 mph Tuesday evening. Its forecast maintained Polo as a major hurricane through Saturday.
The center cautioned that track uncertainty remained high from three to five days. It said it could issue additional watches Tuesday for other parts of southwestern Mexico.
Warm water supports further strengthening
The 9 p.m. forecast discussion said satellite images showed Polo’s previously ragged eye clearing as cloud tops colder than minus 112 degrees Fahrenheit wrapped around the center.
Forecasters cited ocean temperatures near 88 degrees, a deep layer of warm water, abundant atmospheric moisture and low wind shear.
Forecaster Philippe Papin wrote that it was “hard to see what could prevent Polo” from continuing to intensify rapidly through Tuesday.
