According to the Institute of Astronomy and Meteorology ( IAM ) of the University of Guadalajara ( UdeG ), the rainy season in 2020 is forecast to start between June 9 and 15.
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This was announced by the IAM meteorologist, Martha Diana Alcocer, who explained that this season will have moderate or slightly more intense rains than the previous year because the season will be governed by the “El Niño” meteorological phenomenon, which usually brings more precipitation in winter and little rain in summer.
“If the weather continues to behave according to the average, it would be expected to start between June 9 and 15. We hope that it will start between 9 and 10 in the Centro Valles Region and the South Region of the State, advancing towards the Altos Sur Region, Altos Norte, later towards the North Region and ending its start in the Costa Zone,” she said.
During the season, she said that it is expected that in the Central, South and Coast Region, precipitation will be “slightly above the average”, while in the North and North High Regions it is forecast “slightly below the average.”
The meteorologist recalled that although there is some precipitation during May, such as those observed in the area at the beginning of the month, this does not represent the beginning of the rainy season.
Alcocer explained that during the first two months of the year, rainfall was slightly above the usual average, which allowed the dry season to be less severe and fewer forest fires were recorded, so far, than those that occurred during 2019.
“In this forecast, the occurrence of some extreme hydrometeorological event could significantly modify the expected average conditions. For example, if a tropical cyclone occurs, this would completely change the situation, therefore, we must remain alert to the forecasts that are reported daily, since weather events such as severe rain or hail, change the long-term forecast because the models do not include this type of weather,” she said.
IAM asked citizens and the authorities to reinforce the actions planned to face severe weather, in addition to staying at home if it is not required to leave, temporary shelters must try to avoid crowds in the time of the coronavirus.
“For example, hopefully, it does not happen, but if it were the case that we had a tropical cyclone that could be close to our State and they begin to vacate the areas that are most vulnerable and are sent to shelters and if there is not adequate control of people who may be sick with COVID-19 or the ‘healthy distance’ is not respected, this complicates the situation since all the effort that has been made in recent months will be affected during this season,” she said.
In addition, according to the meteorologist, it is expected that the first rains of this season will be “less acidic” because the contamination has been less thanks to the isolation that part of the citizenry has had during the pandemic.