Puerto Vallarta, Mexico – An area of low pressure off Mexico’s southwestern coast has organized into Tropical Depression One, marking the first Eastern Pacific tropical depression of the 2025 hurricane season. Over the last 12 hours, rising showers and thunderstorms wrapped into the system’s core, and satellite scatterometer data captured a well-defined low-level center. Once considered only loosely organized, its banding features have sharpened, particularly along its southern semi-circle, and is expected to become Tropical Storm Alvin.
Forecasters estimate the system is drifting northwest at roughly 8 knots, on a heading of about 320 degrees. The newly consolidated center introduces uncertainty in that track, but most computer models agree it will continue moving northwest to north-northwest over the next couple of days, steered by the prevailing low-level flow.
Environmental factors favor some strengthening through the weekend. Sea surface temperatures in the region remain warm, and vertical wind shear is low—conditions that typically allow tropical depressions to intensify. Forecasters say it could reach tropical storm strength within the next 24 to 48 hours if these favorable conditions persist.
Beyond mid-week, the outlook shifts. By Saturday, the depression is forecast to encounter drier mid-level air, cooler waters, and increasing wind shear. Models show its thunderstorm activity collapsing as those harsher conditions take hold. The NHC predicts the system will degenerate into a remnant low by late Saturday or Sunday and dissipate entirely early next week.
Although still a depression, the system warrants attention along southwestern Mexican coastlines. Even a weak tropical system can produce heavy rainfall, posing risks of localized flooding and mudslides in mountainous terrain. Coastal waters will likely see elevated swells and rough surf for several days, creating hazardous conditions for mariners and beachgoers.
The storm is expected to bring wet weather and high waves to Puerto Vallarta through the weekend.
This development comes just two weeks after the eastern Pacific season officially opened on May 15. Early formation of a tropical depression on May 28 aligns with typical climatology, though some seasons remain quiet until June. Local authorities and residents should monitor official advisories for any shifts in the forecast track or intensity.
The NHC will issue regular updates every six hours, or sooner if significant changes occur. Mariners should consult the latest marine warnings, and residents along the coast are advised to review storm-prep plans, including securing loose outdoor items and ensuring proper drainage around properties.
For now, Tropical Depression One remains a relatively modest system. Yet as the season unfolds, this early formation serves as a reminder to stay vigilant. Whether it strengthens into a tropical storm or fizzles out, its evolution will set the tone for what could be an active eastern Pacific hurricane season.
Puerto Vallarta, Mexico - An area of low pressure off Mexico’s southwestern coast has organized into Tropical Depression One, marking the first Eastern Pacific . . .
