Puerto Vallarta is monitoring possible Tropical Storm Barbara forming off Guerrero, with heavy rains and landslides possible in Oaxaca, Guerrero and Michoacán over coming days.
Meteorologists are watching a low-pressure system off southern Mexico’s Pacific coast that may strengthen into Tropical Storm Barbara, the second named storm of the 2025 Eastern Pacific hurricane season. As of Wednesday morning, Conagua indicated the disturbance sat about 515 km south-southeast of Salina Cruz, Oaxaca, bearing a high potential to organize over the next week.
The first storm of the season, Tropical Storm Alvin, stayed well offshore as it moved north toward the Baja California peninsula in late May. Alvin weakened quickly over cool waters and produced minimal impact on land, though it later delivered flooding rain and thunderstorms across the U.S. Southwest deserts. The track of the current low-pressure that is expected to become Tropical Storm Barbara, is tracking much closer to the coast of Mexico, giving reason for Puerto Vallarta to continue monitoring development. NOAA’s outlook released in late May projects a near-average season featuring 12–18 named storms, of which 5–10 could reach hurricane strength under neutral to weak La Niña conditions.
By June 4, NOAA had upped the chance of development to 80 percent, citing sea surface temperatures of 28–29 °C and moderate wind shear as marginally conducive for gradual intensification. Conagua also estimates an 80 percent probability of cyclonic development within seven days. While only a 20 percent chance exists for tropical storm formation within 48 hours, forecasters expect the system to reach tropical depression strength by week’s end.
Currently moving west-northwest at 16 km/h over warm Pacific waters, the disturbance carries a mid-level wind shear that may slow but not halt its organization. Should sustained winds climb to 65 km/h, it will be named Tropical Storm Barbara; winds of 119 km/h would elevate it to hurricane status.
Even without tropical-storm-force winds, the system threatens heavy rainfall—75 to 100 mm—across coastal Guerrero, Michoacán and Oaxaca. Local officials warn of possible landslides and flash flooding in vulnerable areas, particularly in mountainous terrain.
Pacific Coast residents should stay updated on official bulletins from Conagua and the U.S. National Hurricane Center. Beaches, low-lying roads and riverbanks may flood, and weak soils on steep slopes could destabilize under prolonged downpours. Authorities recommend securing loose items and having an evacuation plan if your community issues alerts.
Local governments in Guerrero and Oaxaca have begun convening emergency response teams to monitor rivers, inspect drainage channels and clear debris from critical waterways. Firefighters and Civil Protection units stand ready to assist remote villages prone to isolation during intense rain.
