Tropical Storm Erick warnings are in effect along Oaxaca and Guerrero as the storm nears hurricane strength, bringing heavy rain, storm surge, and life-threatening flooding.
Southern Mexico is under a series of escalating weather alerts as Tropical Storm Erick spins toward the coast and gains strength. Tropical Storm Erick warnings now cover a wide stretch from Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz, with hurricane watches and warnings extending further along the Oaxaca and Guerrero shorelines.
Warnings and watches in effect
- Hurricane Warning: Acapulco to Puerto Angel
- Hurricane Watch: West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana, and east of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco
- Tropical Storm Warning: East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz
A Hurricane Warning means sustained hurricane-force winds—greater than 74 mph—are expected within 36 hours. Residents and authorities in the warning area have rushed to secure property and finalize evacuations. Meanwhile, a Hurricane Watch indicates hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours, giving communities time to prepare. Areas under Tropical Storm Warning should expect 39–73 mph winds within 36 hours, which can make outdoor activity dangerous and complicate preparations.
Storm track and intensity forecast
As of 9 PM CST Tuesday, the center of Tropical Storm Erick sat near latitude 13.1 N, longitude 94.9 W, moving northwest at about 7 mph. Erick is forecast to accelerate slightly and approach the southern Mexico coast Wednesday night, with landfall likely late Wednesday or early Thursday. Rapid intensification is expected, with Erick reaching hurricane strength by early Wednesday and potentially peaking at major hurricane strength (Category 3 or higher) as it nears landfall.
Satellite and radar data show Erick’s core organizing quickly. Infrared imagery reveals cloud tops cooling to –85 °C near the center, and microwave passes indicate a developing eyewall structure. Current estimates put Erick’s sustained winds at 60 mph, but these could rise sharply in the next 24–36 hours given warm sea surface temperatures (around 29 °C), low wind shear, and moist mid-level air.
Rainfall, flooding, and mudslide risks
Heavy rain poses a grave threat. Oaxaca and Guerrero may see 8–16 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 20 inches. In steep inland areas, such intense downpours can trigger life-threatening flooding and mudslides. Further north and west, Chiapas, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco could receive 3–5 inches, with pockets of up to 8 inches. Residents near swollen rivers and ravines should heed local emergency instructions and consider moving to higher ground.
Storm surge and coastal impacts
A dangerous storm surge will accompany Erick’s landfall, especially where onshore winds push water ashore. Coastal flooding may inundate low-lying areas near the landfall point, and large, destructive waves will threaten beaches and roads. Swells will begin affecting much of the southern coast within 24 hours, creating life-threatening surf and rip currents. Beachgoers and mariners must stay off the water once warnings take effect.
Community response and safety measures
Federal and state authorities have activated emergency operations centers to coordinate evacuations and resource staging. Shelters are opening in high-risk communities, and highway patrols are assisting with traffic control. Utility companies stand by to respond to power outages and downed lines. Citizens are urged to:
- Gather emergency supplies (water, nonperishable food, medicines, flashlights).
- Secure loose outdoor items and reinforce windows and doors.
- Monitor updates from the National Meteorological Service and local officials.
- Follow evacuation orders without delay.
Looking ahead
After landfall, Erick will weaken rapidly over the rugged terrain of southern Mexico but may still produce flooding rains and gusty winds far inland. Meanwhile, interests elsewhere in southern Mexico and Central America should track Erick’s progress in case of shifting hazards. For the latest local forecasts and advisories, consult the Mexican Servicio Meteorológico Nacional.
This story is available in Spanish: Alertas de Tormenta Tropical Erick en la costa de México
