The National Meteorological Service reports that a low-pressure area south of Oaxaca holds a 90 percent chance of developing into Tropical Storm Ivo within 48 hours. Located 310 kilometers south-southeast of Puerto Ángel, Oaxaca, the disturbance moves west-northwest at 24 kilometers per hour. Forecasters warn that its interaction with Tropical Wave 20 and a low-pressure trough over southeastern Mexico will unleash heavy rains, strong winds and high waves along multiple coastlines.
In its advisory on X, the weather service noted that Tropical Wave 20 will merge into the low-pressure area today. This merging will spawn a tropical cyclone off the coasts of Oaxaca and Guerrero. The combined influence of a low-pressure trough stretching from Chiapas to Veracruz will produce intense rainfall across southern Mexico. Guerrero, Oaxaca and Veracruz face heavy rain. Chiapas, Tabasco and Puebla can expect very heavy downpours and gusty winds. Coastal residents should prepare for elevated seas and beach erosion.
Evolution of Tropical Storm Ivo
On Thursday, the system will likely gain strength off the coasts of Colima and Jalisco. Its expanding cloud mass will drive heavy rainfall in Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán and Guerrero. Strong wind gusts will buffet coastal communities. The same trough that fuels the cyclone’s southern rains will draw Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean moisture into southeastern states and the Yucatán Peninsula. That influx may trigger floods and landslides in vulnerable areas.
By Friday, the developing cyclone will lie south-southwest of Baja California Sur. Its broad circulation will push showers across the peninsula. Residents along the coasts of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima and Michoacán should brace for rough surf and gusts. Meanwhile, moisture channels over the Yucatán Peninsula and southeast Mexico will feed heavy rains inland. Rivers and streams could rise rapidly under sustained downpours.
On Saturday, the system will drift farther southwest of Baja California Sur. Showers will remain in place, while wind and waves persist along the peninsula’s shores. Simultaneously, the combined moisture from the Pacific Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea will spread rain across all regions of Mexico. From the northern deserts to the central highlands and the southeastern tropics, forecasters expect scattered downpours and isolated thunderstorms.
Pacific Hurricane Season 2025
Forecasters remind residents that the 2025 season may yield between 16 and 20 tropical cyclones in the Pacific Ocean. To date, four hurricanes and four tropical storms have formed. If conditions evolve as expected, Tropical Storm Ivo will rank among the season’s major storms. Authorities advise mariners to avoid offshore travel and urge coastal communities to secure loose items. Emergency services stand ready to respond to flooding and wind damage.
With the cyclone’s path still subject to slight shifts, officials recommend that residents monitor updates from the National Meteorological Service. Those in affected states should stay alert for local warnings and follow instructions from civil protection agencies. As the system strengthens, state governments will activate support programs and open shelters to protect vulnerable populations from extreme weather.
The coming days will test Mexico’s preparedness for storm impacts ranging from coastal erosion to flash floods. Yet clear forecasts and coordinated emergency plans aim to minimize risks. As Tropical Storm Ivo takes shape, communities along the Pacific and in the interior must remain vigilant and ready for heavy rain, high winds, and dangerous seas.
