Puerto Vallarta, Mexico – Early Thursday evening, Tropical Storm Ivo lay about 275 miles southeast of Baja California’s southern tip. The storm carried sustained winds of 60 mph as it raced northwest at 22 mph. Forecasters expect it to slow and turn west-northwest over the next two days.
Residents along Mexico’s southwestern coast should stay alert. Rainfall totals of one to two inches are likely across Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco through tonight. That rain may cause flash floods in low-lying spots and mountain valleys. Local officials have urged families to secure outdoor items and review emergency plans.
Swells from Tropical Storm Ivo are already hitting the coast. Waves will reach southern Baja California by Friday. Authorities warn of life-threatening surf and rip currents. Swimmers and boaters should heed warnings from beach patrols and avoid entering the water until conditions improve.
Tropical Storm Ivo Track and Strength
The storm’s center sat at latitude 19.7 N, longitude 107.3 W at 8 PM MST. It is over warm waters that favor strengthening. The National Hurricane Center says Ivo could reach hurricane strength by Friday morning. As it moves into cooler seas and drier air this weekend, it should weaken.
Ivo’s wind field remains compact. Tropical-storm-force winds extend about 45 miles from its eye. Thunderstorms near the core already brush the Mexican shore, bringing brief gusts and heavy downpours. The storm’s structure looks uneven, but ocean temperatures and light wind shear may let it intensify before weakening begins.
In their discussion, forecasters note that Ivo lacks well-defined rain bands. This ragged look makes predicting its strength uncertain. Some models show rapid intensification, while others forecast little change. The NHC track and intensity outlook leans toward strengthening in the short term, but they rate that confidence as low.
Over the next five days, Ivo should move west of mainland Mexico and stay well south of the Baja peninsula. By Sunday, cooler waters and drier air will strip its strength. The system is likely to become a remnant low by early Monday.
Authorities continue to monitor conditions and will issue the next full advisory at 2 AM MST. In the meantime, residents should follow instructions from local weather offices.
Public safety officials in coastal towns have opened shelters and staged rescue teams. They remind people not to drive through flooded roads. Even shallow floodwater can stall vehicles and produce strong currents.
Fishing boats and tour operators have halted trips until seas calm. Port officials plan to inspect vessels for damage once the storm passes.
While Tropical Storm Ivo is not expected to make landfall, its outer rain bands and surf hazards may disrupt travel and fishing activities. Tourists and locals should allow extra time for coastal travel and keep tuned to weather updates.
By Friday, Ivo may briefly reach Category 1 hurricane strength before weakening. Afterwards, the system will drift westward into open water. For now, coastal residents and mariners must stay vigilant.
