Puerto Vallarta (PVDN) – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly adjusted its growth forecast for Mexico’s GDP in 2023 to 1.8 percent, up from the 1.7 percent estimated in January. However, the forecast for 2024 remains unchanged at 1.6 percent, according to the World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released on Tuesday.
While the IMF has raised its growth forecast for some countries, the global economy is experiencing a downward trend, with the agency cutting its growth estimate from 2.9 percent to 2.8 percent for 2023, and from 3.1 percent to 3.0 percent for 2024.
The Mexican government has a more optimistic growth forecast of 3.0 percent for both 2023 and 2024, according to the 2024 Pre-Criteria. The IMF’s estimate is below that of the Ministry of Finance, which highlights a divergence in growth expectations.
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Director of the IMF’s Research Department, noted that the gradual recovery of the world economy is still ongoing following the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He also mentioned that the Chinese economy is experiencing a strong recovery as it reopens, while disruptions in the supply chain are easing, and energy and food market disruptions caused by war are receding.
Regarding the United States economy, the IMF forecasts GDP growth of 1.6 percent in 2023, up from the 1.4 percent estimated at the beginning of the year. The agency also predicts an expansion of 1.1 percent in 2024, up from the previous 1.0 percent.
The IMF left its forecast for the Chinese economy unchanged for 2023 and 2024, with expectations of 5.2 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively.
Gourinchas noted that most central banks have implemented massive and synchronized tightening of monetary policy, which should start to bear fruit, with inflation pulling back towards targets. However, the expectation of inflation at the global level is still high, with an estimate of 7.0 percent at the end of this year and 4.9 percent in 2024. In advanced economies, inflation is forecasted to be 4.7 percent in 2023 and 2.6 percent in the next, while in emerging markets and developing economies, it is predicted to be 8.6 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively.
Gourinchas added that while global inflation has eased due to a sharp reversal in energy and food prices, the core inflation, which excludes energy and food, has not yet peaked in many countries. Inflation remains a concern, and central banks will need to continue to monitor it closely as they navigate economic recovery from the pandemic.
Puerto Vallarta (PVDN) - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly adjusted its growth forecast for Mexico's GDP in 2023 to 1.8 percent . . .
