Guanajuato’s Murder Rate has recorded a sharp 45 percent—its most significant decline in eight years. According to the state’s Secretariat for Security and Peace, it marks a rare, glimmering sign of progress. This occurs against the backdrop of ongoing cartel conflict and simmering public fear.
Rise, Fall, and a Fragmented Present
For recent years, Guanajuato has tragically sat at or near the top of Mexico’s homicide rankings. In 2024, the state accounted for over 10 percent of all murders in the country, averaging 8.4 homicides per day. In 2023, it recorded some 3,500 killings, the highest among all states.
What’s Driving the Drop?
On March 25, federal officials announced that a targeted crackdown led to significant changes. Specifically, the arrest of nine individuals believed to be part of a notorious crime cell tied to the Gulf Cartel and Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel resulted in a nearly 45 percent week‑over‑week homicide reduction. Homicides reduced from an average of 12.7 per day (Mar 10–16) to just 7 per day (Mar 17–23).
A Fragile Calm
Despite the encouraging numbers, violence persists. In the first half of 2025, at least 28 mass killings unfolded across Guanajuato. This includes attacks during religious festivals in Celaya and Irapuato, where dozens were killed or injured. These high-impact massacres underscore how cartel rivalries continue to destabilize communities. The rivalries, especially between CJNG and CSRL, along with alliances involving the Sinaloa Cartel, have severe impacts.
Official Response and Outlook
State officials highlight the efficacy of intelligence‑led operations and citizen collaboration in driving down the Guanajuato murder rate. Security Secretary Juan Mauro González Martínez stressed: “We will never be satisfied while there are victims.” Still, analysts warn these gains may be transient—violence adaptation is a hallmark of organized crime.
Bigger Picture: Violence in Mexico
These local shifts in Guanajuato reflect broader trends. Since 2015, Mexico’s national homicide rate has risen significantly. The rise is driven largely by organized crime–linked killings. Such killings have grown sixfold from around 3,000 annual murders in 2007 to roughly 18,000 in recent years. While non‑organized-crime homicides remain relatively flat at around 12,000–14,000 per year, the sheer scale of cartel violence casts a long shadow.
