The white-sand beaches of Cancún and the Riviera Maya have long been a playground for U.S. tourists seeking sun and fun. But recent data reveals an unexpected trend: there are fewer Americans visiting Cancun, and the rest of the Mexican Caribbean coast this year. In the first half of 2025, the number of U.S. travelers touching down in Mexico’s top beach destinations dropped significantly compared to the same period last year. What’s behind this dip in Yankee tourists, and what does it mean for your next Mexican getaway? Let’s dive into the numbers and the stories they tell.
Fewer Americans Visiting Cancun
New figures compiled by the Sustainable Tourism Advanced Research Center (STARC) at Universidad Anáhuac Cancún show a clear downturn in U.S. visitor numbers at Mexico’s major resorts. Cancún – the crown jewel of the Mexican Caribbean – saw the steepest decline: a 6.5% drop in American arrivals, from about 3.09 million U.S. visitors in early 2024 to 2.89 million in the first half of 2025. Other popular spots are also feeling the pinch. Puerto Vallarta registered 5.5% fewer U.S. tourists than the previous year, and even Los Cabos at Baja California’s tip dipped by about 1%.
It’s not just the beach towns. Even the inland cultural hub of Guadalajara saw a 2.1% decrease in U.S. travelers (659,000 vs 673,000 last year). Nationally, the total number of American tourists arriving in Mexico from January to June 2025 fell by 2.2% – about 7.29 million, down from 7.45 million in the same period of 2024. This marks a notable shift for a country that has relied heavily on U.S. tourism for decades.
What’s truly striking is that only one major destination bucked the trend. Mexico City, the nation’s bustling capital far from any beach, actually saw an increase in American visitors. The capital welcomed roughly 943,952 U.S. travelers in the first six months of 2025 – an 8.1% jump from 872,837 in early 2024. In other words, while sun-kissed resorts had fewer American guests, the big city gained popularity among U.S. tourists.
Urban Allure vs. Beach Bliss
Why is Mexico City drawing more Americans while Cancún and Cozumel face a slowdown? Part of the story is a shift in travel preferences. According to the STARC report, many U.S. visitors are increasingly opting for urban adventures over the traditional beach getaway. Mexico’s capital has been booming as a tourist destination – known for its rich history, world-class museums, booming culinary scene, and trendy neighborhoods. It seems American travelers’ curiosity about the cultural and city experience of CDMX (Ciudad de México) is on the rise.
This trend comes after years of Mexico’s coasts dominating tourism headlines. During the pandemic, beach destinations like Cancún and Cabo benefited from Mexico’s lenient travel restrictions – becoming almost a second home for American sun-seekers at a time when many other countries were off-limits. In fact, Americans made up an outsized share of Mexico’s tourists in 2020-2021, peaking at over 76% of all international visitors in 2021. But as global travel opened up, that imbalance began to correct. By the first half of 2024, the U.S. share of Mexico’s international tourists had slid to about 65.5%, and it appears to be softening further now.
Mexico City’s boom in U.S. visitors also aligns with broader trends. The city has become a hotspot for digital nomads and remote workers from the U.S., drawn by its relatively affordable cost of living and vibrant lifestyle. Walk through neighborhoods like Condesa or Roma and you’ll hear plenty of English amid the cafés and co-working spaces. The influx has even sparked local conversations about gentrification and how to balance tourism with residents’ needs, a testament to how popular the capital has become. For many Americans, exploring an authentic urban experience – from street tacos and Aztec ruins to Frida Kahlo’s art and Lucha Libre wrestling – is now as appealing as a week on the beach.
Meanwhile, the Mexican Caribbean (Quintana Roo) remains as beautiful as ever, but American travelers today have more choices on their menu. Many spent the last couple of years hitting the beach in Cancún or Tulum; now some are saying, “What’s next?” and looking to new horizons. “Destination fatigue” is a real consideration – tourists who’ve been to Cancún multiple times might be trying Europe or other parts of the world for a change. In early 2024, U.S. international travel was up 10% overall from the year before, yet much of that growth bypassed Mexico in favor of elsewhere – with Europe emerging as a favored alternative. This year, the same phenomenon likely continues as Americans flood the streets of Paris, Rome, and Tokyo, taking some spotlight away from Cancun’s Hotel Zone.
Why the Decline? Key Factors at Play
Travel experts point to a mix of factors influencing the dip in American arrivals to Mexico’s resorts. It’s not that the Mexican Caribbean lost its charm, but external and perception issues have made some travelers pause. Here are some of the most significant factors identified:
- Sargassum Seaweed Invasion: A major environmental factor this year has been the massive arrival of sargassum seaweed along the coasts of Quintana Roo. In 2025, the region has experienced one of the largest sargassum blooms in recent memory, affecting popular beaches in Cancún, Playa del Carmen, and Tulum. While local authorities have ramped up efforts to clean affected areas, the presence of thick brown seaweed—sometimes accompanied by a strong odor—has impacted the beach experience that many travelers expect. For some would-be tourists, especially those booking last-minute or researching conditions online, reports and photos of sargassum-covered shorelines have likely been a deterrent, pushing them to consider other beach destinations in the Caribbean or beyond.
- Air Connectivity Crunch: One practical reason for fewer American visitors is simply fewer flights and seats available. Airlines have reduced capacity to Mexico’s resort areas, at least temporarily. STARC highlighted a shortage of airplane seats in late 2024, projecting a 7.3% drop in available flights from the U.S. to Mexico during the fall season. This crunch continued into 2025, aggravated by global aviation issues. A worldwide overhaul of certain aircraft engines sidelined some planes, meaning airlines had to cut back flights to destinations like Cancún. Rising fuel prices and airline budget constraints haven’t helped either. Fewer direct flights or higher fares can dampen travel demand – if it’s harder or costlier to get to Cancún, some Americans will choose a different destination with easier connections.
- Perceptions of Safety: Mexico’s image in U.S. media can be double-edged. While millions enjoy trouble-free vacations, headlines about crime or security incidents can have an outsized impact on would-be tourists’ minds. Ongoing concerns about safety – whether it’s cartel violence in the news, or petty crime stories – have made some Americans skittish about traveling south. Importantly, the popular resort areas in Quintana Roo are generally safe and heavily guarded for tourism, but perception is powerful. If travelers feel uneasy, they may opt for what they view as “safer” bets. Recent State Department travel advisories urging caution in some regions, and social media buzz around isolated incidents, have contributed to this wariness. Local officials are well aware that assuring visitors of their safety is crucial.
- Exchange Rate & Trip Costs: A less obvious but important factor is money. The U.S. dollar doesn’t stretch in Mexico quite as far as it did a couple years ago. The Mexican peso has been surprisingly strong, gaining over 11% against the dollar in 2025. Early in 2023, one dollar bought about 20 pesos; by mid-2025 it’s closer to 17-18 pesos. For American travelers, that means hotels, tacos, and margaritas in Mexico cost a bit more in dollar terms than before. At the same time, inflation has nudged up prices for airfare and resorts. Mexico is still a good value, but the “sunshine bargain” isn’t quite what it used to be, especially compared to some cheaper emerging destinations.
- Tourism Promotion (or Lack Thereof): Industry analysts have also pointed out that Mexico’s tourism promotion efforts have waned in recent years. The federal government dramatically cut its tourism marketing budget a few years back – even dismantling its tourism board – putting more onus on states and private companies to do their own promotion. Destinations like Cancún and Los Cabos historically sold themselves, but with fierce global competition, marketing matters. Some experts feel Mexico hasn’t kept pace with campaigns by other countries courting American tourists. Other Caribbean locales and even domestic U.S. destinations have been actively wooing travelers. Without a loud voice in the U.S. market, Mexico’s beach paradises may not be top-of-mind for some Americans planning their vacation.
- “Been There, Done That” & New Alternatives: As mentioned, destination fatigue can set in. Cancun has been one of the top international destinations for Americans for years. After multiple trips, some travelers simply crave something new. Competitive destinations are capitalizing on that. Islands like the Dominican Republic have seen surging tourism numbers. Even within Mexico, new hotspots are emerging – Tulum’s eco-chic scene and even destinations like Puerto Escondido or Yucatán cultural tours – diversifying the options beyond the traditional Cancun/Puerto Vallarta circuit. Additionally, the post-pandemic travel renaissance has Americans checking off bucket-list trips. A week in Italy or Japan, which felt impossible in 2020, is now very much on the table.
- Infrastructure Growing Pains: Ironically, Cancún’s own success may be contributing to a slowdown. The region has seen a massive expansion in hotel rooms in recent years, especially in areas north of Cancun (Costa Mujeres) and down the Riviera Maya. If visitor numbers level off, that translates to lower occupancy rates. Hoteliers in Cancún noted that this year’s spring break/Easter season had softer occupancy despite strong demand, partly because the pie was split among many more hotels. There’s also a brand-new international airport in Tulum set to open or in early operation, which may draw some travelers to fly directly there instead of Cancún. In short, the tourism infrastructure is racing ahead, and for now demand hasn’t fully caught up – especially with fewer Americans in the mix.
Canadians to the Rescue? Diversifying the Visitor Mix
One interesting subplot to this trend: other international travelers are stepping in even as Americans pull back. Notably, our neighbors to the north have discovered the Mexican Caribbean in a big way. Canadian tourists now outnumber Americans in Cancún for the first time ever – a startling development in a destination long dominated by U.S. visitors. Early 2025 saw a surge of Canadians flying south; flights from Toronto to Cancún jumped 42.9%, and from Montreal over 60%, compared to the previous year.
Tour operators cite reasons like more direct flights and what some call the “Trump effect” – a lingering reluctance among some Canadians to travel to the U.S., making Mexico a preferred alternative. Canadians are flocking to Cancun’s beaches, often staying longer (one to two weeks) and coming back repeatedly. Their presence is diversifying the tourist base, which local businesses see as a positive development to not be so dependent on one country. Airlines and hotels have taken note, ramping up marketing to Canadians and even hiring more French-speaking staff to cater to Quebecois visitors.
The rise of Canadian and other international tourists (from Europe and South America) has softened the blow of fewer Americans. Cancún’s total international arrivals are down, but not in freefall, because people from elsewhere are filling many airplane seats. Still, the U.S. traveler is irreplaceable in scale – Americans historically account for the bulk of Mexico’s foreign tourists, so even a single-digit percentage drop is felt acutely in tourism revenue.
A Wake-Up Call for Mexican Tourism
For Mexico’s tourism sector, these trends serve as a wake-up call. After a decade of booming visitor numbers (apart from the 2020 pandemic slump), a mild downturn in a key segment is prompting some reflection and action. Local and state authorities in the hardest-hit destinations are responding. The latest STARC report emphasizes the need to strengthen promotional strategies, improve infrastructure, and diversify the offerings in places like Quintana Roo and Jalisco.
Mexico City’s success story offers lessons. The capital’s tourism authorities have leaned into its strengths – history, art, food, and a cosmopolitan vibe – and it’s paying off. They’ve also capitalized on trends like remote work travel, promoting longer “workcation” stays. Seeing Americans respond enthusiastically to an urban destination might encourage other regions in Mexico to highlight their cities.
What It Means for Travelers
If you’re an American traveler, you might be wondering: Should I be concerned? Should I change my Mexico travel plans? The honest answer is that Mexico remains as welcoming and exciting as ever, though the landscape is shifting. The Mexican Caribbean is far from “over” as a top destination; in fact, overall international tourism to Mexico is still rising in 2025, fueled by travelers from all over. Americans still make up more than half of all foreign visitors, so you certainly won’t feel lonely or out of place in Mexico’s resort towns.
What is different is the narrative. The U.S.-Mexico travel dynamic is normalizing after an extraordinary few years. As a traveler, you can take advantage of this. Love the beaches? This might be a great time to visit Cancún or Playa del Carmen – you could encounter slightly lower prices or special deals, and you’ll find plenty of Canadians and Europeans in the mix. On the other hand, if you’ve been there and done that, Mexico’s diversity of destinations is ready for you. Maybe follow the trend and give Mexico City a try for a long weekend of museums and tacos al pastor, or explore a colonial city like Oaxaca or Mérida for a different flavor of Mexico.
