Mexico predicts busier-than-average hurricane season

Mexican experts predicted Friday that there will be a higher-than-average number of storms during the 2020 hurricane seasons in the Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific.

The Pacific season opened Friday; the Atlantic season begins June. 1.

Mexico’s National Water Commission said there will probably be 15 to 18 named storms and hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific, compared to the long-term average of 15.

The commission predicted 15 to 19 named storms in the Atlantic, compared to the long-term average of 12 named storms. The commission said that the Atlantic and Pacific combined could produce a total of between seven and nine major hurricanes this year. There were seven major hurricanes in 2019.

“For this year, a more active season is expected in both oceans. That is, there will be more tropical storms than on average,” said water commission Director Blanca Jiménez, who noted that Mexican farmers often benefit from the rainfall the storms bring.

Earliest Storm on Record Formed on April 25, 2020

On April 23, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook (STWO) for a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the tip of the Baja California Peninsula for potential development into a tropical cyclone.

Subsequently, the trough began to quickly organize with convection appearing to wrap around the elongated center of circulation. The low, supported by excellent outflow on its northern side, developed slowly throughout the day and into April 24 as it broke away from the Intertropical Convergence Zone, therefore the NHC assigned it a high possibility of formation in the next 48 hours on the following day due to these increases in organization.

However, by later April 24, shower and thunderstorm activity near the center began to diminish, yet the center became slightly more rounded.

On April 25, soon indicated by an ASCAT pass, the low developed a much more well-defined center overnight and new thunderstorms began to fully obscure the circulation. Around this time, the NHC upgraded the system to Tropical Depression One-E around 15:00 UTC on April 25, marking the earliest formation of a tropical cyclone in the basin to the east of the 140°W longitude since reliable records began in 1966, with the storm forming over three weeks early from the official start of the season.

The previous record for the earliest forming storm was held by Tropical Storm Adrian of 2017, which formed on May 9.

Pacific Hurricane Storm Names 2020

The following names will be used for named storms that form in the northeastern Pacific Ocean during 2020. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2021 (in concurrence with any 2019 names). The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2026 season. This is the same list used in the 2014 season, with the exception of the name Odalys, which replaced Odile.

Amanda
Boris
Cristina
Douglas
Elida
Fausto
Genevieve
Hernan

Iselle
Julio
Karina
Lowell
Marie
Norbert
Odalys
Polo

Rachel
Simon
Trudy
Vance
Winnie
Xavier
Yolanda
Zeke


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