Near-shoring, moderating inflation and a surge in vacation-rental demand keep bricks and mortar firmly on investors’ radars for 2025.
A cooling economy, but investors double-down on bricks and mortar
Mexico wrapped up 2024 with headline inflation at 4.21 %, still above Banxico’s 3 % goal yet well below the 8.7 % peak of 2022, according to INEGI’s end-of-year release. GDP growth for 2025 is projected in a restrained 1.5 %-2.2 % band, Banxico’s latest quarterly outlook shows.
Those softer macro numbers have not cooled property appetite. “In times of global volatility, Mexican real estate remains the safe harbor,” notes the National Association of Real Estate Professionals (AMPI), reporting an 8 % year-on-year jump in residential and commercial purchases during Q1 2024, led by hotspots such as Cancún, Mérida and Querétaro.
Lamudi data put annual capital gains on homes in mid-sized growth cities between 7 % and 11 %, and above 15 % in select tourist corridors. Rental demand is even stronger: vacation-rental income climbed 14 % in tourist resorts like Playa del Carmen and Puerto Vallarta last year, says analytics firm Deyde DataCentric.
Puerto Vallarta: poster child for income growth
Few markets illustrate the trend better than Puerto Vallarta:
- Rental yields: Vacation-rental revenues rose 14 % in 2024, outpacing national averages.
- Rate resilience: Average daily rates now hover near US $200, while top-decile properties command US $398+ a night.
- Occupancy: Even median listings hold steady around 40 % annual occupancy, with peak-season spikes over 55 %.
Behind the numbers is a potent mix of rising international arrivals, a post-pandemic influx of digital nomads and the city’s well-established LGBT-friendly brand. Supply has raced to keep up—AirROI counts almost 7,000 active short-term listings—yet demand continues to outstrip new inventory, particularly in the Romantic Zone and Marina Vallarta.
Beyond sun-and-sand destinations, the relocation of Asian supply chains to northern and central Mexico is feeding a boom in industrial parks—and with them, demand for workforce housing. Landlords in Monterrey, Saltillo and Querétaro report record waiting lists for mid-priced rentals as foreign direct investment pours in.
Global brokerage RE/MAX closed 2024 with an 18 % increase in completed transactions, buoyed by strong interest in pre-sale residential projects and emerging vacation-rental niches. The firm says clients are shifting from “fix-and-flip” plays toward longer-term, cash-flow-driven assets—especially condos that can list on Airbnb from day one.
“Whether you’re chasing yield in Puerto Vallarta or capital gains in Monterrey’s industrial belt, 2025 still looks like a buyer’s market in Mexico,”
— Karim Oviedo, National President, AMPI.
Risks to watch
- Election-year jitters: Policy continuity is expected, but a populist twist on housing regulation could appear on campaign trails.
- Rate unpredictability: Banxico has begun a cautious cutting cycle; steeper-than-expected adjustments could quickly alter mortgage calculus.
- Over-saturation in micro-markets: Analysts flag Vallarta’s Hotel Zone and parts of Tulum where inventory growth is outpacing bookings.
With inflation ebbing and near-shoring accelerating, property remains Mexico’s standout hedge against currency and market volatility. Capital-gain prospects of 7-15 % blend with rental yields that, in Puerto Vallarta’s case, are rising at double-digit clips. For investors able to navigate licensing rules and seasonality, 2025 is shaping up as another year when the safe play is, quite literally, concrete.
Near-shoring, moderating inflation and a surge in vacation-rental demand keep bricks and mortar firmly on investors’ radars for 2025.
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