7:00 AM Local Time Update: At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 103.4 West. Dolores is moving faster toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue until landfall. Dolores is forecast to make landfall along the southwestern coast of Mexico within the next few hours. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional intensification is possible prior to landfall, and Dolores is forecast to be near hurricane intensity when it makes landfall later today. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall, and Dolores is expected to dissipate by the end of the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. READ THE LATEST STORY ABOUT TROPICAL STORM DELORES AND LANDFALL HERE
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes and a Hurricane Watch from Punta San Telmo, Michoacan to Cabo Corrientes, Jalisco. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued north of Cabo Corrientes, Jalisco to Escuinapa, Sinaloa, just north of Nayarit. This Tropical Storm Watch includes Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.
Puerto Vallarta has activated 20 shelters in case they are needed.
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 102.5 West. Dolores is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed Saturday and Saturday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Dolores is expected to cross the coast of west-central Mexico within the warning area Saturday evening. Dolores is then expected to move northward along the west-central coast of Mexico and then inland over northwestern Mexico Saturday night and Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Dolores could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico by Saturday evening. Weakening is expected Saturday night and Sunday while Dolores moves northward near and along the west-central coast of Mexico.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area Saturday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area Saturday night into Sunday morning.
RAINFALL: Dolores will produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, with rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches expected with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by the depression will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
The SMN asked the population to take extreme precautions in the areas that may be most affected and to comply with the recommendations issued by the National Civil Protection System.
The Coordination of Civil Protection stressed that the national system under its charge is ready to “address the possible effects of the presence of rain and that the secretariats of National Defense and Navy, as well as the National Guard, Conagua and the Commission Federal de Electricidad have activated their preventive plans and protocols.
They also added that there are more than 3,000 temporary shelters that can be enabled if necessary in the states of Nayarit (145). Colima (236), Jalisco (1,075), Chiapas (456), Michoacán (179), Guerrero (624) and Oaxaca (371).
Just a few days ago, the National Civil Protection Coordination warned that two low-pressure areas with the possibility of becoming tropical cyclones will cause the first storms to make landfall in the 2021 Hurricane Season.
The climate agency explained that these events are located very close to Mexican territory. The first of them is located in the waters of the Pacific Ocean, just 160 kilometers from Oaxaca . Its center will “slowly border the coasts of Oaxaca, Chiapas, Guerrero, and Michoacán, with the possibility of entering the land.” The second storm advanced through the Gulf of Mexico, about 195 kilometers from Veracruz.
Hurricane season 2021 in the Pacific Ocean
This year, the hurricane season in the Pacific began earlier than ever. Tropical storm Andrés formed on Sunday, May 9, off the coasts of Jalisco and Michoacán, and in doing so it broke a historical record, since never before, since there are records, had a system of that magnitude originated so soon in the northeastern part of this ocean. The previous record had been set by Tropical Storm Adrián, which emerged on May 10, 2017.
In addition, Andrés also anticipated the official start of the hurricane season in the Pacific, which begins each year on May 15 and ends on November 30.
According to the SMN, the following systems are expected in 2021:
- Tropical storms: between 7 and 10.
- Strong hurricanes (categories 1 and 2 ): from 3 to 5.
- Intense hurricanes (categories 3, 4 or 5): from 4 to 5.
Total: between 14 and 20 tropical cyclones.
The data is in the average collected for this Ocean between 1991 and 2020, which is 15 cyclones.
Names for the Northeast Pacific: Andrés -already used-, Blanca -already used-, Carlos -already used-, Dolores -already used-, Enrique, Felicia, Guillermo, Hilda, Ignacio, Jimena, Kevin, Linda, Marty, Nora, Olaf, Pamela, Rick, Sandra, Terry, Vivian, Waldo, Xina, York, Zelda.
Receive the PVDN morning newsletter and exclusive content by becoming a PVDN Supporter, learn more here
- RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORM OFF COAST OF MEXICO CAN BRING HEAVY RAINS TO PUERTO VALLARTA THIS WEEK
- WATCHING TWO POTENTIAL STORMS THAT COULD DEVELOP INTO FIRST STORMS OF THE SEASON TO MAKE LANDFALL IN MEXICO
- TROPICAL STORM CARLOS BECOMES THIRD NAMED STORM OF THE PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON 2021