The phenomenon known as ‘La Niña’ will remain over the Pacific Ocean until February 2023, detailed a report by the National Meteorological Service (SMN) of the National Water Commission (Conagua).
According to the agency, when this natural event occurs, the formation of tropical systems in the Atlantic Ocean tends to increase, so an increase in cyclone activity is expected in the remainder of the 2022 tropical cyclone season.
Regarding the weather conditions for Mexico, the ‘La Niña’ phenomenon will cause rains below the average in the northern and central regions of the Mexican Republic, as well as conditions with rains above the average on the Pacific slope, the south of the Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula.
In the autumn-winter transition, it is more likely that there will be a significant increase in rainfall in Campeche, Chiapas, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, Veracruz, and Yucatán, due to the interaction of waves or tropical cyclones with the first cold fronts of the winter season.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the main modulators of global climate, since, by modifying atmospheric circulation, it alters rainfall and temperature patterns in different parts of the planet.
Particularly, ‘La Niña’ is the cold phase of this oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon that occurs along the equatorial Pacific Ocean, characterized by the decrease in sea surface temperature in this region.
During the winter, the ‘La Niña’ event is associated with a rainfall deficit in the Baja California and Yucatan peninsulas, as well as in central, northern, and western Mexico. In contrast, it is also related to more precipitation than usual in regions of Veracruz, Oaxaca, and Chiapas. Meanwhile, winters are colder in the west and south of the country, and warmer in the northeast.
Each La Niña event is unique and there are factors that condition its effects on a global and regional scale, so the spatial patterns are not always the same.
