Three areas of instability with possibility of becoming tropical storms off Mexico’s coast

We are just in the beginning days of the 2021 Hurricane Season, and in the waters of the Pacific and the Atlantic there is already considerable activity.

The National Meteorological Service (SMN) reported that this Monday, June 7, it is monitoring three areas of instability that surround Mexico and could become tropical cyclones in the next few days.

Through a statement, the agency explained that two of these areas are moving through the waters of the Pacific.

Areas of instability in the Pacific Ocean

The first of the systems that advances through the Pacific is the strongest, and the one that is furthest from the Mexican coast, about 885 kilometers southwest of Manzanillo, Colima. In the last hours, this low-pressure zone decreased its intensity, although it still maintains a 70% chance of evolving into a tropical cyclone in the next two days. At dawn on Monday, its maximum sustained winds beat at 30 kilometers per hour, with more intense gusts of up to 40 km / h.

The second system is located much closer to Mexican territory, just 30 kilometers south of the mouth of the Suchiate River, on the border of Mexico and Guatemala. This zone of instability gained strength, and now has a 40% probability of intensifying to a tropical cyclone within five days.

Instability zone in the Atlantic

In addition, on Monday morning the SMN announced that it detected an area of ​​instability in the Atlantic. This is still very recent and weak. It is located 690 kilometers southeast of Chetumal, Quintana Roo, and registers a 20% probability for cyclonic development.

The governor of Quintana Roo, Carlos Joaquín, indicated that the storm does not represent a risk for the state at the moment.

“An area of ​​low pressure is developing over the southwest of the Caribbean Sea with a low probability of development in a cyclonic system. In 48 hours 0% and in 5 days 20% probability. It does not represent a risk for Quintana Roo. Its evolution and trajectory are monitored ”, wrote the governor.

According to the trajectory forecast drawn up by the Miami National Hurricane Center, this area will advance towards the north, approaching the Yucatan Peninsula.

“A low-pressure area is expected to develop in the southwestern Caribbean Sea on Thursday or Friday. Some gradual development will be possible thereafter as the system slowly moves northwest toward Central America,” according to the weather center.

For a low-pressure zone to become a tropical depression, it must reach maximum sustained winds of at least 38 miles per hour, or 61 km / h. When they reach 65 km / h a tropical storm forms.

So far, three cyclones have been registered: two in the Pacific (Andrés and Blanca) and one in the Atlantic (Ana). All moved out to seas, none caused damage in Mexico.

Hurricane season 2021 in the Atlantic Ocean

The hurricane season in the Atlantic began on June 1, and the following systems are expected, according to the forecast of the SMN of the National Water Commission (Conagua):

  • Tropical storms: between 8 and 11.
  • Strong hurricanes (categories 1 and 2 ): from 4 to 5.
  • Intense hurricanes (categories 3, 4 or 5): from 3 to 4.

Total: between 15 and 20 tropical cyclones.

The figure is above the average registered between 1991 and 2020 for this region, of 14 systems. However, it is a far cry from the 30 cyclones that were reported last year.

Names for the Atlantic: Ana -already used-, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Elsa, Fred, Grace, Henru, Ida, Julian, Kate, Larry, Mindi, Nicolas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda .

Hurricane season 2021 in the Pacific Ocean

This year, the hurricane season in the Pacific began earlier than ever. Tropical storm Andrés formed on Sunday, May 9, off the coasts of Jalisco and Michoacán, and in doing so it broke a historical record, since never before, since there are records, had a system of that magnitude originated so soon in the northeastern part of this ocean. The previous record had been set by Tropical Storm Adrián, which emerged on May 10, 2017.

In addition, Andrés also anticipated the official start of the hurricane season in the Pacific, which begins each year on May 15 and ends on November 30.

According to the SMN, the following systems are expected in 2021:

  • Tropical storms: between 7 and 10.
  • Strong hurricanes (categories 1 and 2 ): from 3 to 5.
  • Intense hurricanes (categories 3, 4 or 5): from 4 to 5.

Total: between 14 and 20 tropical cyclones.

The data is in the average collected for this Ocean between 1991 and 2020, which is 15 cyclones.

Names for the Northeast Pacific: Andrés -already used-, Blanca -already used-, Carlos, Dolores, Enrique, Felicia, Guillermo, Hilda, Ignacio, Jimena, Kevin, Linda, Marty, Nora, Olaf, Pamela, Rick, Sandra, Terry, Vivian, Waldo, Xina, York, Zelda.

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