Puerto Vallarta, Mexico (PVDN) – Trade between Mexico and the United States reached the historical figure of $779.3 billion dollars in 2022, a growth of 17 percent compared to the amount registered in 2021, according to the United States Census Bureau.
This figure was supported by an annual growth of 18.3 percent in merchandise imports from Mexico, which totaled $454.9 billion dollars. The amount represented 14 percent of the total imports that the United States made in 2022.
Exports from the United States to Mexico increased 17.3 percent compared to 2021, to register an amount of $324.3 billion dollars.
With this value of total trade, Mexico remained the second largest trading partner of the United States, only surpassed by Canada, which totaled $793.8 billion dollars.
China was in third place, with trade of $690.5 billion dollars, barely a growth of 5 percent compared to 2021. These three countries together represent 51 percent of the total trade of the United States.
In monthly figures, imports made by the United States of Mexican merchandise were $36 billion dollars, while exports to Mexico registered a value of $24.9 billion dollars.
Alfredo Coutiño, director for Latin America at Moody’s Analytics, highlighted that Mexico continues to maintain its status as a trading partner of the United States thanks to the trilateral trade agreement in force since 1994, and reinforces the fact that the Mexican economy is highly synchronous with respect to the cycle American economic.
“It is because of this high synchrony that, for better and for worse, Mexico does well when the United States grows, but it also does badly when the United States falls,” said the economist.
According to an analysis by Grupo Financiero Base, the three main import sectors from Mexico were manufacturing of transportation equipment (30.8 percent), manufacturing of computer and communications equipment (18.0 percent), and manufacturing of accessories and electrical appliances. with 9.1 percent.
Mario Campa, a specialist in international trade, estimates that in 2024 Mexico could overtake China in terms of share of imports since there is currently a trade conflict with the United States.
In addition, he said that since the pandemic there has been a process of relocating investments in Mexico that is palpable by the increase in exports and the saturation of industrial parks.
“If this dynamic continues, Mexico could surpass China in two or three years,” he said.
Campa also warned that there are some risks, since Mexico could be concentrating its foreign trade with a single partner, exposing the country to not only internal cycles, but also to the cycles of the United States economy.
Coutiño pointed out that in 2023 a slowdown in Mexican exports could be expected due to the slowdown of the US economy, since he estimates that the United States could grow around 1 percent, that is, half of what grew in 2022.
The US trade deficit reached a record $948 billion in 2022, an increase of 12.2 percent from 2021, and more than a third of the total coming from trade with China.
Thus, the deficit with China was the largest, amounting to $382.9 billion dollars, followed by Mexico with $130.6 billion dollars and Vietnam with $116.1 billion dollars.
“Trade flows will remain under pressure in 2023 amid slow global growth and normalizing demand from the United States,” said Shannon Seery, an economist at Wells Fargo.
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