Two new Pacific storms have 70% chance of development this week

In the south of Mexico, there are currently two storms with a 70% chance of development into tropical depressions this week.

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within a few days well offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

Another area of low pressure is forecast to develop south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this week and move westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, well offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

Hurricane Season 2021

This year, the hurricane season in the Pacific began earlier than ever. Tropical storm Andrés formed on Sunday, May 9, off the coasts of Jalisco and Michoacán, and in doing so it broke a historical record, since never before, since there are records, had a system of that magnitude originated so soon in the northeastern part of this ocean. The previous record had been set by Tropical Storm Adrián, which emerged on May 10, 2017.

In addition, Andrés also anticipated the official start of the hurricane season in the Pacific, which begins each year on May 15 and ends on November 30.

Hurricane Predictions 2021

According to the SMN, the following systems are expected in 2021:

  • Tropical storms: between 7 and 10.
  • Strong hurricanes (categories 1 and 2 ): from 3 to 5.
  • Intense hurricanes (categories 3, 4 or 5): from 4 to 5.

Total: between 14 and 20 tropical cyclones.

The data is in the average collected for this Ocean between 1991 and 2020, which is 15 cyclones.

Names for the Northeast Pacific: Andrés -already used-, Blanca -already used-, Carlos -already used-, Dolores -already used-, Enrique -already used-, Felicia, Guillermo, Hilda, Ignacio, Jimena, Kevin, Linda, Marty, Nora, Olaf, Pamela, Rick, Sandra, Terry, Vivian, Waldo, Xina, York, Zelda.


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