Puerto Vallarta, Mexico – A potential tropical cyclone has been identified off Mexico’s Pacific coast, intensifying as it moves slowly west-northwest, according to a report from the National Water Commission (Conagua). Currently situated approximately 185 kilometers southwest of Zihuatanejo, Guerrero, this low-pressure zone has prompted concern as it shows a 40% chance of developing into a cyclone within the next 48 hours, with probabilities reaching 70% over the coming week. Should this system strengthen sufficiently, it would be named “Kristy,” succeeding a prior disturbance in the same region that failed to meet tropical storm classification.
The brewing system has been interacting with a monsoon trough and several low-pressure channels across northern, western, and central regions of Mexico, raising concerns over significant rainfall impacts. Conagua has warned that heavy to very heavy rains could strike several states, including Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Nayarit, Guanajuato, and Aguascalientes, among others. These states are advised to prepare for increased rainfall, localized flooding, and potential landslides in mountainous areas.
Potential Impact and Characteristics of a Tropical Cyclone
Tropical cyclones are intense meteorological systems driven by a closed circulation of strong winds surrounding a low-pressure center. They form primarily over warm ocean waters, with heat and moisture from the ocean fueling the system’s development. Tropical cyclones vary in strength, ranging from tropical depressions to full-fledged hurricanes, depending on wind intensity and atmospheric conditions. The impact of these systems can be devastating, producing torrential rainfall, severe winds, and life-threatening storm surges that affect coastal and near-coastal communities.
With this system off the coast, Conagua urges local residents, travelers, and businesses in the affected regions to remain vigilant as heavy rainfall may increase the risk of flash flooding and landslides, particularly in low-lying areas and mountainous regions.
