UPDATE:
This story was published Thursday, October 22 at 9 AM. Hurricane Patricia is now a Category 5 storm expected to make landfall between Puerto Vallarta and Colima on Friday, October 23. Read more about Hurricane Patricia here.
ORIGINAL STORY:
Patricia has strengthened to a hurricane as it nears Mexico’s Pacific coast and forecasters say it will keep getting stronger.
Patricia’s maximum sustained winds increased Thursday morning to near 90 mph (150 kph). Additional strengthening is expected and U.S. National Hurricane Center says the storm could become a major hurricane later in the day or overnight.
A hurricane warning is in effect for the Mexican coast from Cabo Corrientes to Punta San Telmo, a stretch of coastline that includes the port city of Manzanillo. A tropical storm warning was declared from Punta San Telmo east to Lazaro Cardenas.
Patricia is centered about 235 miles (375 kilometers) south-southwest of Lazaro Cardenas with movement toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 kph).
The Hurricane Center says Patricia is expected to bring heavy rain to the states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero.
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and a
Hurricane Watch from north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Cabo Corrientes to Punta San Telmo
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas
* North of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas
* North of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Patricia was located
near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 103.8 West. Patricia is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today with a reduction in forward speed. A turn
toward the northwest and then toward the north is forecast tonight
and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Patricia will make
landfall in the hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or evening.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
24 hours, and Patricia is expected to become a major hurricane later
today or tonight and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through
landfall.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the
hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to first reach the warning areas by late
tonight or early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
hurricane watch area late Friday.
RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and
Guerrero later today into Saturday. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the right of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are already affecting portions
of the southern coast of Mexico, and will spread northwestward
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
