Tropical Storm Erick is forecast to become a hurricane before making landfall in southern Mexico. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect from Bahias de Huatulco to Punta Maldonado.
Tropical Storm Erick continues to gather strength off Mexico’s southern Pacific coast and is forecast to become a hurricane by Wednesday, according to the latest advisory from the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Bahias de Huatulco to Punta Maldonado, while a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for areas east of Huatulco to Salina Cruz.
The government of Mexico is urging residents and visitors in Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Chiapas to prepare for possible hurricane conditions and heavy rainfall starting midweek.
Erick Strengthens in Favorable Conditions
As of 6:00 a.m. CST Tuesday, Erick was centered near latitude 12.1 North and longitude 93.8 West, moving west-northwest at 12 mph (19 km/h). Maximum sustained winds have reached 40 mph (65 km/h), with further strengthening expected. Tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 45 miles from the center.
Forecasters anticipate that Erick will become a hurricane on Wednesday as it approaches the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions—low wind shear, warm ocean temperatures near 29°C, and ample mid-level moisture—are creating an ideal setting for rapid intensification.
According to NOAA forecasters, the cyclone’s structure has become better organized, and there is a significant chance for rapid strengthening before landfall. The latest model guidance shows consistent forecasts with a northwestward trajectory, although small changes in the storm’s heading could greatly alter where and when the strongest impacts will be felt.
Heavy Rainfall and Flood Risk Across Southern Mexico
Erick poses a serious risk of flash flooding and landslides across parts of southern Mexico and Central America. Forecast models indicate that rainfall totals could reach 5 to 10 inches, with isolated areas seeing up to 15 inches, particularly in the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and Guerrero. Coastal sections of Guatemala are also expected to experience intense rainfall.
Interior regions of Southeast Mexico, including Tabasco and Veracruz, as well as parts of Guatemala and El Salvador, may see 2 to 4 inches of rain with localized totals up to 6 inches.
The steep terrain in many of these regions significantly increases the likelihood of mudslides and flash flooding, which could threaten lives and infrastructure.
Storm Surge and Dangerous Surf Expected
Along with wind and rain, storm surge is another threat for communities near the coast. Coastal flooding is possible near the area where Erick makes landfall, especially in locations with onshore winds. This will be accompanied by large and potentially destructive waves.
Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the coastline of southern Mexico within the next 24 hours. These swells could produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Residents and visitors are urged to stay away from the beaches and listen to local weather authorities.
Hurricane Warning Likely Later Today
A Hurricane Warning may be issued later Tuesday for a portion of the coast as confidence increases in Erick’s track and intensity. A Hurricane Watch means hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours, while a Tropical Storm Watch indicates the possibility of tropical storm conditions over the same time frame.
Officials are encouraging residents in watch areas to begin making hurricane preparations while conditions are still safe. Emergency supplies, evacuation plans, and secure shelter arrangements should be considered now.
Local Authorities Monitoring Erick’s Path
Mexico’s national weather service and civil protection agencies are closely monitoring the storm. Residents in affected areas are urged to follow official updates and instructions. Flash flood watches and local advisories may be issued as the storm approaches.
Due to Erick’s expected increase in intensity and close proximity to the coast, even a small shift in direction could lead to a major escalation in impacts. Coastal towns in Oaxaca and Guerrero, including Puerto Escondido, Huatulco, and Punta Maldonado, are at heightened risk.
For official updates and detailed local information, monitor forecasts from the Mexican Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov.
Tropical Storm Erick is forecast to become a hurricane before making landfall in southern Mexico. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect . . .
