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Tropical Storm Odile Could Bring Its Center Close to Puerto Vallarta This Weekend

*** UPDATE SEPTEMBER 10 – 10:30 PM ***

Tropical Storm Odile is strengthening off the coast of southern Mexico, and the first tropical storm watch has been posted for the Mexican coast.

Wednesday evening, the government of Mexico issued a tropical storm watch for its Pacific coast from Lazaro Cardenas, in the state of Michoacan, westward to Manzanillo, in the state of Colima.

This is a relatively short stretch of coast, and for now the watches do not include the resort cities of Acapulco, Ixtapa/Zihuatanejo, or Puerto Vallarta. However, this could change based on future refinements to the forecast track and, equally importantly, the size of Odile’s wind field.

Odile first formed as Tropical Storm Fifteen-E Wednesday morning in the Eastern Pacific and quickly strengthened into a tropical storm.

Steady strengthening is expected over the next few days as Tropical Storm Odile moves north-northwest. Odile will remain in a moist environment of low to moderate shear and over very warm water. The only factor that could limit strengthening would be land interaction. The official forecast brings Odile easily past the 74-mph threshold required to become a hurricane.

The eventual path of the future Odile is tricky.

One option is for the system to track far enough offshore such that only peripheral impacts (outer rainbands, high surf, rip currents) are possible from near Manzanillo northward to the Baja Peninsula.

Another option is for future Odile to track much closer to the coast, bringing the threat of high winds, surge flooding, and torrential rain to the above-mentioned areas.

If this second, closer to the coast track were to occur, the closest approach of the center to the southwest Mexican coasts of Jalisco, Colima and possibly Michoacan would occur late Friday into Saturday, and in the southern Baja peninsula late Sunday into Monday.


*** UPDATE SEPTEMBER 10 – 11:00 AM ***

Tropical Storm Odile has now formed off the coast of southern Mexico.

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E first formed Wednesday morning in the Eastern Pacific and quickly strengthened into a tropical storm.

Steady strengthening is expected over the next few days as Tropical Storm Odile moves north-northwest. Odile will remain in a moist environment of low to moderate shear and over very warm water. The only factor that could limit strengthening would be land interaction.

The eventual path of the future Odile is tricky.

One option is for the system to track far enough offshore such that only periphery impacts (outer rainbands, high surf, rip currents) are possible from near Manzanillo northward to the Baja Peninsula.

Another option is for future Odile to track much closer to the coast, bringing the threat of high winds, surge flooding, and torrential rain to the above-mentioned areas.

If this second, closer to the coast track were to occur, the closest approach of the center to the southwest Mexican coasts of Jalisco, Colima and possibly Michoacan would occur late Friday into Saturday, and in the southern Baja peninsula late Sunday into Monday.

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