Roslyn has intensified further during the past several hours, as the hurricane continues to show a small well-defined eye inside of a cold central dense overcast with an increase to a category 4 storm. What effects would it have in Puerto Vallarta?
The initial motion is now north-northwestward, or 330/7 kt. The track forecast philosophy is unchanged from the previous advisory. Roslyn is expected to continue recurving around the western periphery of a mid-level high centered over Mexico during the next 36 hours. The track guidance continues to indicate that the hurricane will pass just offshore of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, tonight, and then accelerate north-northeastward on Sunday, likely making landfall on the coast of the Mexican state of Nayarit. After landfall, Roslyn or its remnants are expected to accelerate toward the northeast over northern Mexico.
Conditions appear favorable for continued strengthening during the next 6-12 h, and the new intensity forecast calls for Roslyn to strengthen some more during that time. After that, increasing southwesterly vertical shear and land interaction should cause some weakening before landfall. However, Roslyn is still expected to be at or near major hurricane strength when it makes landfall on Sunday. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall as Roslyn moves through the mountains of the Sierra Madre Occidentals.
Key Messages:
- Roslyn is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when it passes near and makes landfall along the west-central coast of Mexico Saturday night and Sunday, accompanied by damaging winds and a dangerous storm surge. Preparations within the Hurricane Warning area along the west-central coast of Mexico should be rushed to completion.
- Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and west-central Mexico.
Puerto Vallarta remains under a hurricane warning
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Puerto Vallarta. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
The rains could generate landslides, increase in the levels of rivers and streams, overflows, and floods in low-lying areas, for which the population and maritime navigation in the vicinity of Roslyn are urged to heed the warnings of the Meteorological Service.
What effects will “Roslyn” bring to Puerto Vallarta?
- The SMN indicated that “Roslyn’s cloud bands will cause torrential rains (150 to 250 millimeters (mm)) in Jalisco and Nayarit”
- In addition, it will cause wind with gusts of 120 to 150 km/h and waves of 4 to 6 meters (m) high on the coast of Jalisco
- A hurricane prevention zone was established from Playa Pérula, Jalisco, to El Roblito, Nayarit, including the Marías Islands
- “The rains generated could cause landslides, increased levels of rivers and streams, overflows and floods in low-lying areas of the aforementioned states,” said the SMN
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area by tonight and early Sunday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by this afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area south of Playa Perula today or tonight, and within the warning area north of El Roblito on Sunday.
RAINFALL: Roslyn is expected to produce the following rainfall totals across coastal areas of southwestern and west-central Mexico:
Michoacán and the lower coast of Colima: 1 to 3 inches
Jalisco: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches along the northern coast.
Upper coast of Colima, western Nayarit including Islas Marias and southeastern Sinaloa: 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches
Southern Durango into western Zacatecas: 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches.
This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and landslides in areas of rugged terrain.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Roslyn are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Recent news about Roslyn
Roslyn has intensified further during the past several hours, as the hurricane continues to show a small well-defined eye inside of a cold central . . .
