Puerto Vallarta (PVDN) – Margarita Méndez Girón, the head of the National Meteorological Service (SMN), has announced the beginning dates for the 2023 tropical cyclone and rainy seasons in both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The Pacific is set to start on May 15, while the Atlantic is expected to follow on June 1.
The exact regions in Mexico that will be affected by tropical cyclones cannot be definitively pinpointed due to various factors that can influence their intensity and trajectory. However, historical data provides insight into which states are more likely to experience these natural phenomena.
As Méndez Girón detailed in a press briefing, the regions with the highest probability of experiencing a tropical cyclone, based on data from 1971 to 2020, are Baja California Sur (17%) and Veracruz (13.3%).
Coming in third with an equal chance of 12.2% are Sinaloa and Quintana Roo. They are closely followed by Tamaulipas (8.9%), Sonora (6.7%), and Oaxaca (5.9%). The list also includes Michoacán, Guerrero, Colima, and Jalisco with probabilities of 4.8%, 4.1%, 3.3%, and 3.7%, respectively.
However, Méndez Girón, who leads the SMN, emphasizes that while historical statistics are important, any state, whether on the Pacific coast, Gulf coast, or Yucatan Peninsula, could potentially be impacted by a hurricane.
For the 2023 season, the authorities responsible for tracking weather patterns anticipate above-average activity in the Pacific Ocean region. This could mean an increase of up to 30% from the average of 15 systems.
In contrast, the Atlantic Ocean region, encompassing the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, is predicted to have a typical season. It could even potentially see a decrease of up to 10% from the average of 14 systems.
In the Pacific region, between 16 and 22 systems are projected, including 9 to 11 tropical storms, 4 to 6 category 1 or 2 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 category 3 to 5 hurricanes.
