Roslyn looks better organized on satellite imagery this evening and Puerto Vallarta has been placed under a hurricane watch.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
The cyclone will move over warm sea surface temperatures within a weak deep-layer shear environment during the next couple of days or so. This is expected to support strengthening, and Roslyn is forecast to become a hurricane by late Friday with continued intensification over the weekend.
Key Messages:
- Roslyn is forecast to become a hurricane before it passes near or over the west-central coast of Mexico late Saturday and Sunday, accompanied by strong winds and a potentially dangerous storm surge. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of mainland Mexico from Playa Perula northward to San Blas, and additional watches or warnings will likely be required on Friday.
- Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and west-central Mexico.
