Hurricane Kay Live Updates

PVDN has ended live updates for Hurricane Kay in Puerto Vallarta. You can continue following information about the storm as it approaches Baja California here.

Tuesday, September 6, 6:00 AM CDT

The center of Hurricane “Kay” Category 1 is located southwest of the coast of Jalisco. The cloud bands of the system cause punctual torrential rains, winds with strong gusts and high waves on the coasts of the western states of the country.

WIND: Wind with gusts of 80 to 100 km/h and waves of 4 to 6 meters high are forecast on the coasts of Baja California Sur, Jalisco and Colima

SURF: Wind with gusts of 80 to 100 km/h and waves of 4 to 6 meters high are forecast on the coasts of Baja California Sur, Jalisco and Colima.

RAINFALL: Extensive cloud bands will cause punctual torrential rains in Baja California Sur and Sinaloa; very strong punctual rains in Nayarit and strong punctual rains in Jalisco, Colima and Michoacán, which could cause an increase in the levels of rivers and streams, landslides and floods in low areas.

Monday, September 5, 10:00 PM CDT

Kay was upgraded to a hurricane earlier today based on valuable data that was received from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters just before the previous advisory issuance.

The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 285/9 kt. The track guidance for Kay over the next few days remains in good agreement. Kay is expected to turn northwestward on Tuesday and then north northwestward by early Wednesday while moving toward or to the west of the Baja California peninsula. While the core of the storm is still forecast to remain offshore, the large wind field could bring tropical-storm-force winds to the southern portion of Baja California by early Wednesday. The hurricane is forecast to make its closest approach to the west-central portion of Baja California late Thursday into Friday.

Kay could approach major hurricane strength in 36-48 h.

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Watch northward from Puerto San Andresito to Punta Abreojos. Additional tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings could be necessary for portions of Baja California later tonight or on Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGES:

  1. Gusts to tropical-storm-force and rough surf along the coast of southwestern Mexico are expected through Tuesday. In addition, heavy rainfall from Kay could lead to flash flooding, including landslides, across portions of the Mexican Riviera and western Mexico through Wednesday night.
  2. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the southern Baja California peninsula by early Wednesday, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued.
  3. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain uncertain, there is increasing risk of significant wind, surf, and rainfall impacts across the central portion of the Baja California peninsula later this week.

Next update on Tuesday, September 6, 7:00 AM CDT, or earlier if changes in the storm are recorded.

Monday, September 5, 7:00 PM CDT

Hurricane Kay remains a category 1 storm and is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwest motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a northwest to north-northwest motion by late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected to remain southwest and west of southwestern Mexico through Tuesday, then move to the west of the southern Baja California peninsula on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through midweek.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts in outer rainbands are likely near the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with isolated storm total amounts of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican Riviera and western Mexico through Wednesday night. These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, including landslides.

Next update at 10:00 pm CDT

Monday, September 5, 4:00 PM CDT

KAY HAS INCREASED STRENGTH AND IS NOW A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE

Kay intensified this afternoon to a Category 1 Hurricane on the Saffir Simpson scale. Its center is located to the southwest of Manzanillo, Col., and to the south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, BCS. The cloud bands of the system cause punctual torrential rains, winds with strong gusts, and high waves on the coasts of the western states of the country, including Jalisco.

The center of Hurricane Kay was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 107.3 West. Kay is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a northwest to north-northwest motion by late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected to remain south and southwest of southwestern Mexico through tonight, then move to the west of the southern Baja California peninsula on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued strengthening is forecast through midweek.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts in outer rainbands are likely near the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the southern Baja California peninsula by early Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with isolated storm total amounts of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican Riviera and western Mexico through Wednesday night. These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding and landslides.

Next update at 7:00 PM

Monday, September 5, 12:00 PM CDT (noon)

At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 106.8 West. Kay is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h).

A turn to the west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a northwest to north-northwest motion by late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected to remain south and southwest of southwestern Mexico through tonight, then move toward the southern Baja California peninsula on Wednesday.

Related News: Tropical Storm Kay already causing damage in Puerto Vallarta

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Kay is forecast to become a hurricane tonight. Continued strengthening is forecast through midweek to a category 2.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts in outer rainbands are likely near the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with isolated storm total amounts of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican Riviera and western Mexico through Wednesday night. These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, including landslides.

Next Update at 4:00 PM CDT or if the situation changes.

Monday, September 5, 9:00 AM CDT

At 9:00 AM the center of Tropical Storm Kay was located southwest of the coasts of Colima and Michoacán, the cloud bands of the system cause intense rains in the western states of the country, as well as strong gusts of wind and high waves on the coasts of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, and Guerrero.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Kay is forecast to become a hurricane tonight. Continued strengthening is forecast through midweek.

Kay is expected to pass south and southwest of southwestern Mexico through tonight, then pass the coast of Puerto Vallarta on Tuesday morning, and move toward the southern Baja California peninsula on Wednesday.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts in outer rainbands are likely near the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
the southern Baja California peninsula by early Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Kay will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Large swells are likely to reach the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday and are expected to spread up the peninsula and the Gulf of California later this week. These swells will
likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with isolated storm total amounts of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican Riviera and western Mexico through Wednesday night. These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, including landslides.

Next Update at 1:00 PM CDT.

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