Puerto Vallarta (PVDN) – The presidency of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) since 2018 has been shaped by his approach to managing violent crime, which remains a major security threat in Mexico. Recent arrests of high-profile individuals such as Ovidio Guzmán of the Sinaloa Cartel and Antonio Oseguera of the Jalisco Nueva Generación Cartel (CJNG) suggest a strategy focused on capturing key figures involved in fentanyl and synthetic drug trafficking.
These efforts take place in the context of often-tense relations between Mexico and the United States, which have experienced differences over immigration, security, and energy issues. Both countries will hold presidential elections in 2024.
Targeting high-profile criminals, as part of the so-called “capo strategy,” carries significant risks and can contribute to cycles of violence. In the short term, arrests of this nature are likely to trigger violent reprisals from criminal organizations, the magnitude of which will depend on the hierarchy of those arrested. For example, the arrest of Ovidio Guzmán in January 2020 sparked violent riots in the city of Culiacán and other parts of the state of Sinaloa. Similar situations have occurred during other security operations targeting prominent leaders of criminal organizations, such as the CJNG, which has also violently resisted the capture of its leaders.
Although competition for control of the drug market remains a primary cause of violence, organized crime is also expanding into other areas, such as extortion, kidnapping, fuel theft, and the exploitation of natural resources. The impact of this violence is primarily felt by local populations, particularly those involved in these activities, while foreigners and travelers are less affected, although they are at increased risk if they find themselves in the midst of a confrontation.
Theft of vehicles and fuel is on the rise, driven by a combination of economic inequality, inadequate security policies, illegal arms, and drug trafficking, family disintegration, and corruption in different sectors. This environment creates fertile ground for illegal gangs to thrive, using all available means and human resources, whether voluntarily or involuntarily.
Territorial disputes between organized crime factions and drug trafficking groups have intensified, particularly between the CJNG and the Sinaloa Cartel, making Sonora the fifth most violent state in Mexico. The clashes are fueled by the state’s strategic location for drug trafficking across the US border. In addition, the wealth produced by Sonora’s mines makes it a target for organized crime groups, which have robbed and extorted mining companies operating in remote parts of the state. Violence is likely to continue in these conflicted areas in the short and medium term.
Fuel theft is a major risk in Mexico, with a broad impact on security, tax collection, infrastructure damage, and environmental damage. This criminal activity represents one of the main sources of income for illegal gangs, providing quick and easy income. Pemex, the state-owned oil company, has adopted measures that include real-time monitoring of its pipeline pressures and the deployment of dissuasive measures around its facilities, supported by security forces. However, corrupt employees who facilitate these scams remain a major challenge for Pemex. In 2022, the company reported losses equivalent to a 196.6% increase compared to the same period in 2021.
As deadlines for the completion of essential projects and the 2024 presidential elections approach, security operations to protect key infrastructure will intensify. The deployment of members of the National Guard (GN) to protect the Mexico City subway following sabotage allegations in January exemplifies this trend. Further deployment of security forces can be expected in other areas, notably along the Maya Train route in southeastern Mexico, as well as around ambitious mining and energy projects in the north. The expansion of the railway project, which is supported by the armed forces, may face protests from members of rural communities in the affected areas. In the north, violence can erupt near mining and energy projects, as security forces attempt to dismantle criminal groups and confront other social actors in the region.
While some areas of Mexico have seen significant improvements in security, violence remains a focus in other regions. For example, cartel violence in Tabasco has declined in recent years, and the Tampico metropolitan area has seen a remarkable improvement in its security environment. However, gang violence remains a problem in Colima, Michoacán, and Jalisco, as well as in Zacatecas to the north. Guanajuato is mostly affected by violence in its industrial cities in the center-south of the state and its surroundings, with the capital Guanajuato and San Miguel de Allende largely spared from violence, although petty and street crime is a common threat to those on the go and to the workforce.
Yucatán consistently records low rates of petty crime compared to the rest of the country, with isolated protests rarely leading to riots. Violent crime is rare and unlikely to significantly impact the foreign population in the medium to long term.
Puerto Vallarta (PVDN) - The presidency of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) since 2018 has been shaped by his approach to managing violent . . .
