Puerto Vallarta, Mexico – In a survey conducted by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) in November, specialists revised upwards their expectations for the peso-dollar exchange rate at the end of this year. The forecast increased from 19.80 to 20.29 pesos per dollar, reflecting a depreciation of 49 centavos.
Analysts also adjusted their outlook for 2025, raising the expected exchange rate from 20.00 pesos per dollar in the October survey to 20.59 in November, an increase of 59 centavos.
The outlook for the national currency worsens further toward the end of 2026—the year when the review of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) is scheduled. Specialists foresee an exchange rate of around 21.23 pesos per dollar, an increase of 70 centavos compared to the previous survey’s expectation of 20.53 pesos per dollar.
The deterioration in exchange rate expectations in Banxico’s latest survey is attributed to the U.S. President-elect’s policy direction, which is perceived as focusing on trade retaliation and intimidation through the imposition of tariffs and deportations. These factors generate uncertainty and inject volatility into the peso’s exchange rate against the dollar.
However, Mexico’s current free-floating exchange rate regime serves as a shield for the national economy. One of its objectives is to accommodate supply shocks and to insulate the real economy by absorbing disturbances that may come from external factors.
Regarding the real growth of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP), analysts revised upwards their expectations for the end of 2024 from 1.40% to 1.53% annual growth. For 2025, they adjusted their forecasts from 1.17% to 1.20%.
Conversely, the growth rate for 2026 was revised downward to 1.80% from the previous 2.00%, while the average growth expectation for the next 10 years was reduced from 2.00% to 1.90%.
In terms of inflation, experts now expect the general rate to close the year at 4.42%, slightly down from the previous estimate of 4.45%. For the core inflation rate, they revised their estimate downward from 3.80% to 3.69%.
The November survey maintains the outlook that Banxico will cut its reference interest rate by 25 basis points during its last monetary policy meeting of 2024, which would result in the funding rate closing the year at 10%.
Puerto Vallarta, Mexico - In a survey conducted by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) in November, specialists revised upwards their expectations for the peso-dollar exchange rate at the end of this year. The forecast increased from 19.80 to 20.29 pesos per dollar, reflecting a depreciation of 49 centavos.
Analysts also adjusted their outlook for 2025, raising the expected exchange rate from 20.00 pesos per dollar in the October survey to 20.59 in November, an increase of 59 centavos.
