A surface trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for the development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week while moving west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, near the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Regardless of development, heavy rains are likely over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system through the weekend.
- Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.
Another low-pressure zone off the coast of Veracruz will turn into a tropical cyclone in the coming days, as predicted by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami.
According to the US agency, there is a 90% chance that the system will evolve into a tropical storm within five days and a 60% chance that it will evolve in less than 48 hours. They explained that so far, what has slowed the development of the phenomenon has been its proximity to the mainland, but this will change soon.
“This system will move little this Wednesday, and little or no development is expected during that time due to interaction with land. However, the broad disturbance should begin to move north on Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form Thursday night or Friday as it moves across the western Gulf of Mexico,” the NHC said.
Early this Wednesday, the low-pressure zone was located just 60 kilometers from Coatzacoalcos, Veracruz, and its position is practically stationary. The climate agency stressed that regardless of its evolution, it will continue to generate heavy rains in “parts of Central America and southern Mexico for the next few days.”
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Hurricane season 2021 in the Pacific Ocean
This year, the hurricane season in the Pacific began earlier than ever. Tropical storm Andrés formed on Sunday, May 9, off the coasts of Jalisco and Michoacán, and in doing so it broke a historical record, since never before, since there are records, had a system of that magnitude originated so soon in the northeastern part of this ocean. The previous record had been set by Tropical Storm Adrián, which emerged on May 10, 2017.
In addition, Andrés also anticipated the official start of the hurricane season in the Pacific, which begins each year on May 15 and ends on November 30.
According to the SMN, the following systems are expected in 2021:
- Tropical storms: between 7 and 10.
- Strong hurricanes (categories 1 and 2 ): from 3 to 5.
- Intense hurricanes (categories 3, 4 or 5): from 4 to 5.
Total: between 14 and 20 tropical cyclones.
The data is in the average collected for this Ocean between 1991 and 2020, which is 15 cyclones.
Names for the Northeast Pacific: Andrés -already used-, Blanca -already used-, Carlos -already used-, Dolores, Enrique, Felicia, Guillermo, Hilda, Ignacio, Jimena, Kevin, Linda, Marty, Nora, Olaf, Pamela, Rick, Sandra, Terry, Vivian, Waldo, Xina, York, Zelda.
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