Puerto Vallarta, Mexico - Tropical Storm Alvin, the first named cyclone of the 2025 Eastern Pacific hurricane season, will pass well offshore of Jalisco’s coastline, posing no direct threat to Puerto Vallarta, meteorologist Víctor Manuel Cornejo López assured residents today. Alvin’s center is tracking north-northwest away from the state, maintaining a safe distance from landfall zones.
Alvin originated as Tropical Depression One-E, which intensified into a tropical storm late on May 29. As of the early hours of May 30, the storm’s center was located approximately 585 kilometers south-southwest of Punta San Telmo, Michoacán, moving toward the north-northwest with sustained winds of about 65 km/h and gusts reaching up to 85 km/h. Forecast models indicate that Alvin will continue its track parallel to the western Mexican coast without making landfall, gradually weakening to a remnant low by May 31.
Although Alvin is generating convective bands near the coast, wind shear and cooler waters farther north will inhibit further intensification. By late Friday, meteorologists expect the system to degrade into a tropical depression and eventually dissipate over open waters. Residents along the Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacán coasts may observe increased cloud cover and scattered showers, but no severe weather events are anticipated.
“Meteorological data confirm that Alvin will remain far from Puerto Vallarta,” stated Víctor Manuel Cornejo López, an advisor to the local Civil Protection committee. “We are monitoring the system continuously, but at this time, we do not expect to convene the scientific committee for an emergency briefing.” He emphasized that while Alvin poses no risk of damaging winds to Jalisco’s shoreline, light rainfall could still benefit the region, which has experienced a dry spell in recent weeks.
Cornejo López noted the storm’s path toward the Baja California Peninsula remains on track with existing forecasts. “There is no hazard expected for Baja California or any significant impacts along the western coast of Mexico. The primary effect here in Jalisco will be lighter showers, which are welcome given our current rainfall deficit,” he added.
Though Alvin will remain offshore, Puerto Vallarta’s beaches and coastal areas should brace for modest changes in wave patterns. Civil Protection authorities warn of “wave trains,” or sets of larger-than-normal waves that could arrive unexpectedly starting Friday. “These wave trains can develop suddenly, even when the center of the storm is hundreds of kilometers away,” Cornejo López explained. “Surfers and small craft operators should exercise caution, and beachgoers should heed any red flag warnings issued by local officials.”
Light rainfall is also forecast for Puerto Vallarta through the weekend. The National Meteorological Service (SMN) predicts scattered showers of 5 mm to 15 mm, primarily overnight into Saturday morning. While these totals are not enough to cause flooding, they may reduce the current drought stress on the region’s reservoirs and agricultural areas.
This year’s Eastern Pacific hurricane season began unusually early, with Alvin forming just days after the official start on May 15. Meteorologist Cornejo López has projected a total of 16 to 20 named storms for the Pacific basin, slightly above the long-term average of 15. Of these, he anticipates eight to nine will reach tropical storm status, four to five will become Category 1 or 2 hurricanes, and three to four could intensify into major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
“The Pacific typically experiences 16 to 17 tropical cyclones each season,” Cornejo López explained. “Our outlook shows a near-normal cycle, but warm sea surface temperatures could lead to more intense storms. Alvin is our first and could set the stage for a busy season.”
Civil Protection authorities urge the public to remain informed by following updates from the SMN, local government channels, and trusted media outlets. Residents should:
- Monitor official social media accounts and local radio/television for advisories.
- Avoid entering the water when red flags are posted on beaches.
- Secure loose items in yards and on balconies, as wave surges may reach higher than usual tides.
- Prepare an emergency kit with essentials—water, non-perishable food, medications, flashlight, and first aid supplies—in case conditions worsen unexpectedly.
“Even though Alvin will not cross the coast, secondary effects like sudden wave surges can pose risks to swimmers and small vessels,” Cornejo López cautioned. “Staying updated and following Civil Protection guidance is the best way to ensure safety.”
Alvin’s projected track will take it parallel to the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur. By Saturday, satellite imagery indicates the storm will encounter cooler waters and increased wind shear, leading to rapid weakening. Models from the National Hurricane Center predict Alvin will drop below tropical storm strength by late May 31 and dissipate into a remnant low near the southern tip of Baja.
Although no direct impacts are forecast for Baja California, fishermen in Loreto and La Paz are advised to expect choppy seas and offshore swells of 1 to 2 meters through Sunday. Port authorities recommend vessels over 20 meters remain docked until conditions normalize.
With Alvin tracking safely away from Jalisco’s shoreline, Puerto Vallarta can anticipate only minor weather changes: light rain and potentially larger wave trains beginning Friday. Meteorologist Víctor Manuel Cornejo López reaffirmed, “The storm poses no real danger to our city.” Citizens are encouraged to stay alert via official Civil Protection bulletins and exercise caution around coastal waters.
As the Pacific hurricane season continues, residents should remain prepared for any new developments. Continued monitoring of Alvin and forthcoming tropical systems will be essential to safeguard communities along Mexico’s western coast.
